109
FXUS62 KTBW 080036
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
836 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Westerly flow has become well established today and expect this
pattern to continue through the weekend, but unlike a typical
westerly sea breeze regime, an upper ridge will build over the
Gulf to produce subsidence and drier air aloft limiting
morning/early afternoon coastal rain and only scattered PoPs
inland and into SW FL. This drier air aloft and suppressed cloud
cover will allow temps to warm quickly Saturday as higher dewpoint
Gulf airmass will produce higher humidity and above normal heat
index values through the weekend. Latest grids and forecasts on
track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with weakening westerly winds tonight
then increasing flow Sat but expect some drier air over much of
the area to limit SCT TSRA to SW FL terminals aft 16Z Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage mostly over
the eastern side of the peninsula through the remainder of the day
as the sea breeze collision occurs in the region and a weakening mid
level trough swings through. However, some development is still
expected in interior areas of the CWA before westerly flow attempts
to keep most activity pinned to areas just to the east of the
forecast area by the evening hours and while an isolated strong
storm or two can`t be ruled out, overall severe chances remain lower
than yesterday given slightly warmer mid level temperatures.
Otherwise, any activity from today will generally weaken by around 9-
10 PM as diurnal heating fades.

A frontal boundary will drop into northern Florida overnight and
stall around north central portions of the state throughout the
upcoming weekend. This will help reinforce the westerly flow across
the area so any precipitation activity that occurs would generally
be more favored for interior areas but large scale subsidence will
also be increasing as mid level ridging across the lower Mississippi
Valley gradually builds into the area. This combination of
increasing subsidence, westerly flow, and drier air building in
aloft will support lower precipitation coverage overall throughout
the weekend but there will still be some rain potential mostly for
southern portions of the forecast area where moisture should remain
deep enough to produce showers and storms with sea breeze
interaction. In addition, as upper heights aloft increase throughout
the weekend with ridging building in, temperatures will be on the
rise with most areas expected to reach the mid/upper 90s and heat
index values approaching or exceeding criteria. While conditions
look close to criteria for Saturday, decided to hold off on any
advisory for the afternoon forecast issuance after collaboration
with neighboring WFOs but with even warmer heat indices expected by
Sunday, there certainly remains potential for advisory issuance in
subsequent forecast issuances.

Mid level ridging across the area begins to break down by early next
week as an upper level trough swings across the Eastern Seaboard.
This feature will push a cold front across the Southeast on Monday
but once again this frontal boundary will stall north of the area,
helping to keep westerly in flow in place to start off the new week.
Meanwhile, attention turns to the south of the area as models show
an upper trough developing across the Gulf of Mexico while a plume
of deep tropical moisture extends northward from the western
Caribbean.  While details remain uncertain regarding the positioning
of where this plume will ultimately set up, there is increasing
confidence of a very moist airmass moving into the area and setting
the stage for multi-day heavy rain event by mid to late week as
significant moisture advection increases into the region. While
precipitation will be welcome news to alleviate the ongoing drought
conditions in west central and southwest Florida, this pattern may
also introduce some hydro concerns depending on where some of the
heaviest rainfall occurs. Given the expectation in a much wetter
pattern by mid to late week, temperatures will also be trending
cooler throughout the week as cloud cover increases as the tropical
airmass becomes established across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A cold front settles across north central Florida over the
upcoming weekend and this will keep westerly flow in place across
the Gulf waters with winds generally around 5-10 kts. Rain chances
will be lower overall throughout the weekend as drier air builds
into the area but occasional showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible. Another cold front approaches northern Florida by
early next week with westerly winds slightly increasing, though
wind speeds will generally remain below 15 kts. Tropical moisture
then surges into the area by mid to late week with increasing rain
chances and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Lower rain chances arrive for the weekend as a frontal boundary
stalls north of the area, which will keep westerly winds in place
but wind speeds will remain below red flag criteria. However, a
few showers and thunderstorms could occur mostly in interior
areas. A wetter pattern then could develop by mid to late week
next week as tropical moisture moves into the area with beneficial
rainfall possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  78  94  79  94 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  76  99  77  99 /  10  30  10  30
SRQ  79  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  73  96  72  96 /  10  20   0  20
SPG  82  93  82  94 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RDavis/Hurt