Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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049 FXUS62 KTBW 071729 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 129 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Recent radar imagery shows some light scattered showers and isolated storms drifting eastward across portions of the Nature Coast as a weak upper disturbance continues to approach the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry at the moment but some showers and storms remain possible over the next few hours near coastal areas as the sea breeze spreads inland within the westerly flow regime. However, interior areas will still be favored for higher precip coverage later in the day as the sea breeze collision occurs near the eastern side of the peninsula later today. While a few stronger storms could develop across the interior, mid level temperatures will be warmer than yesterday and instability will be a bit less so this should limit the severe potential overall. Otherwise, another warm and humid day ahead with widespread highs in the mid 90s and heat indices peaking around 103-107 by late afternoon, which is just short of advisory criteria. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Significant changes appear likely over the course of the next week. In the short term, hot temperatures will continue today and into the weekend away from the coast. A weak U/L disturbance will push across the area today enhancing lift...however, increasing southwest to west boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland early in the day. This will create low chance pops along the coastal counties during the morning and early afternoon hours, with the boundary pushing inland during the afternoon hours and a slight increase in areal coverage and a bit higher rain chances over the interior. An U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will build over the Florida peninsula during the weekend. Increasing heights and associated large scale subsidence will cause temperatures to climb a few degrees, with max temps over the interior likely in the upper 90s each day. The U/L ridge will weaken early next week and a significant pattern change will take place. A broad mid-level trough will develop over the central Gulf of Mexico with deep south to southwest flow developing out of the western Caribbean. This will pull the first real wedge of tropical moisture north across the forecast area by midweek. Still much to play out in the details, but PCPW values will likely climb above 2 inches...and over 2 1/2 inches isn`t out of the question. There will be the potential for locally heavy rain Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday across portions of west central and southwest Florida with the risk for localized flooding. Will need to monitor evolution of this scenario over the next several days as a significant widespread multi-day heavy rain event is possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the TAF period, though some brief flight restrictions will be possible as showers and storms develop. Greatest precip chances will be for interior areas but some activity may be in close enough proximity to effect KLAL and SWFL terminals. Otherwise, westerly winds will continue with wind speeds dropping below 5 kts overnight and increasing to 5-10 kts into Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Weak gradient expected over the coastal waters through the weekend with the main hazard an isolated thunderstorm which could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas. Increasing south/southwest flow next week may create SCEC conditions on portions of the waters...with SCA conditions possible mid week. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will also be possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 No fire weather hazards are expected over the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above critical values. However, the persistent hot temperatures and overall dry conditions will create a risk for wildfire activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 FMY 78 95 79 94 / 20 40 30 50 GIF 76 97 77 98 / 10 30 10 40 SRQ 78 93 78 93 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 73 97 72 96 / 10 20 0 20 SPG 82 92 83 93 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard