Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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567 FXUS62 KTBW 070034 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 834 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Upper shortwaves moving over the region wrapping around the base of the Eastern US longwave trough with embedded upper energy that combined with daytime heating and the seabreeze to enhance a very strong thunderstorm near Duette earlier this afternoon that produced a strong arcing outflow boundary that enhanced the Gulf seabreeze and collided with the E Coast seabreeze along the Kissimmee River Valley for an active early evening radar wise. All this activity is winding down leading to clearing skies overnight with the warm and humid conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Lingering VCTS in SWFL terminals to end by 02Z. VFR conditions overnight with clearing skies and light and variable winds. Westerly flow to begin Fri with a chance of morning into early afternoon SHRA/TSRA near coastal sites then moving inland through the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Westerly low level flow continues to become increasingly established as a Bermuda high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic with the approach of a cool front that will drop into the Southeast US tonight. This westerly flow will allow the west coast sea breeze to continue to spread inland through the remainder of the day and favor a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula so precipitation coverage in the forecast area will be greatest in interior areas, particularly much of Polk county southward into southern interior areas. SPC has a Marginal risk in place across much of this region and a Slight risk across most of Highlands and the eastern half of Polk county as some isolated instances of 1" hail and wind gusts of around 60 mph will be possible with the strongest cores that develop given MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, 500mb temps as low as -10C, and steep low level lapse rates. Any precipitation activity that develops today will taper off by around 9-10 PM as diurnal heating fades, but scattered convection will once again develop on Friday as a mid level trough swings across the region. Despite the presence of this feature, 500mb temps will be slightly warmer than today with values around -7C/-8C, so severe chances appear to be lower at this time but there will still be more than enough instability for perhaps a few stronger storms to develop. Regardless, westerly low level flow will be reinforced across the region as the aforementioned cool front continues its slow approach to northern Florida and this will once again favor the greatest precipitation coverage to be across interior areas and across the eastern side of the peninsula. The weekend should feature lower rain chances as the cool front stalls around north central Florida and generally washes out into early next week. With our area ahead of the frontal boundary, this will help maintain the westerly flow throughout the weekend as mid level ridging across the lower MS valley gradually builds in from the west. This feature will bring in some drier air aloft and keep rain chances lower throughout the weekend, though there will still be some potential for showers and storms mainly for the southern half of the forecast area where the deepest moisture will be in place. The ridging will become increasingly flattened by early next week as models show trough swinging across the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, tropical moisture appears to surge northward from the Caribbean, which may possibly associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG). While forecast details remain highly uncertain at this time on the evolution of this potential feature, there remains deterministic and ensemble support in this increase in tropical moisture with the latest EPS showing probabilities of 70-80% for PWAT values greater than 2 inches spreading across the area by mid to late week. As a result, high rain chances with slightly cooler high temperatures will be the general theme of the forecast for much of next week for now given the increase in cloud cover but latest trends on how this potential CAG evolves will need to be monitored to better iron out expected conditions and impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic shifts further offshore with winds generally remaining westerly over the next several days as a cool fronts approaches Florida from the north. In addition, occasional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Gulf waters at times with locally hazardous seas possible in the vicinity of this activity. The front will stall across the northern half of the marine zones over the weekend before washing out into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Minimum RH values should generally remain above critical levels through the end of the week, though some locations may briefly drop into the upper 30s at times. Scattered showers and storms will mostly be favored for inland areas over the next couple of days as westerly winds will remain in place. The weekend will feature somewhat lower rain chances as some drier air spreads in but enough moisture should remain for some showers and storms for the southern half of the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 93 79 94 / 30 50 20 20 FMY 76 94 78 94 / 50 70 50 40 GIF 74 97 76 98 / 30 60 20 30 SRQ 77 93 78 94 / 30 40 20 30 BKV 71 94 72 97 / 20 50 10 20 SPG 81 92 82 93 / 30 40 20 30 && && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RDavis/Hurt