Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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001 FXUS62 KTBW 070746 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 346 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Significant changes appear likely over the course of the next week. In the short term, hot temperatures will continue today and into the weekend away from the coast. A weak U/L disturbance will push across the area today enhancing lift...however, increasing southwest to west boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland early in the day. This will create low chance pops along the coastal counties during the morning and early afternoon hours, with the boundary pushing inland during the afternoon hours and a slight increase in areal coverage and a bit higher rain chances over the interior. An U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will build over the Florida peninsula during the weekend. Increasing heights and associated large scale subsidence will cause temperatures to climb a few degrees, with max temps over the interior likely in the upper 90s each day. The U/L ridge will weaken early next week and a significant pattern change will take place. A broad mid-level trough will develop over the central Gulf of Mexico with deep south to southwest flow developing out of the western Caribbean. This will pull the first real wedge of tropical moisture north across the forecast area by midweek. Still much to play out in the details, but PCPW values will likely climb above 2 inches...and over 2 1/2 inches isn`t out of the question. There will be the potential for locally heavy rain Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday across portions of west central and southwest Florida with the risk for localized flooding. Will need to monitor evolution of this scenario over the next several days as a significant widespread multi-day heavy rain event is possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Scattered morning/early afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coastal counties today with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs...pushing inland this afternoon and may briefly impact terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Weak gradient expected over the coastal waters through the weekend with the main hazard an isolated thunderstorm which could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas. Increasing south/southwest flow next week may create SCEC conditions on portions of the waters...with SCA conditions possible mid week. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will also be possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 No fire weather hazards are expected over the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above critical values. However, the persistent hot temperatures and overall dry conditions will create a risk for wildfire activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 80 94 80 / 40 20 30 10 FMY 94 78 95 79 / 50 20 50 40 GIF 96 76 97 77 / 50 20 30 20 SRQ 93 78 93 78 / 40 20 30 20 BKV 94 73 97 72 / 50 10 20 10 SPG 92 82 92 83 / 40 20 30 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley