Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
669 FXUS62 KTBW 061857 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Westerly low level flow continues to become increasingly established as a Bermuda high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic with the approach of a cool front that will drop into the Southeast US tonight. This westerly flow will allow the west coast sea breeze to continue to spread inland through the remainder of the day and favor a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula so precipitation coverage in the forecast area will be greatest in interior areas, particularly much of Polk county southward into southern interior areas. SPC has a Marginal risk in place across much of this region and a Slight risk across most of Highlands and the eastern half of Polk county as some isolated instances of 1" hail and wind gusts of around 60 mph will be possible with the strongest cores that develop given MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, 500mb temps as low as -10C, and steep low level lapse rates. Any precipitation activity that develops today will taper off by around 9-10 PM as diurnal heating fades, but scattered convection will once again develop on Friday as a mid level trough swings across the region. Despite the presence of this feature, 500mb temps will be slightly warmer than today with values around -7C/-8C, so severe chances appear to be lower at this time but there will still be more than enough instability for perhaps a few stronger storms to develop. Regardless, westerly low level flow will be reinforced across the region as the aforementioned cool front continues its slow approach to northern Florida and this will once again favor the greatest precipitation coverage to be across interior areas and across the eastern side of the peninsula. The weekend should feature lower rain chances as the cool front stalls around north central Florida and generally washes out into early next week. With our area ahead of the frontal boundary, this will help maintain the westerly flow throughout the weekend as mid level ridging across the lower MS valley gradually builds in from the west. This feature will bring in some drier air aloft and keep rain chances lower throughout the weekend, though there will still be some potential for showers and storms mainly for the southern half of the forecast area where the deepest moisture will be in place. The ridging will become increasingly flattened by early next week as models show trough swinging across the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, tropical moisture appears to surge northward from the Caribbean, which may possibly associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG). While forecast details remain highly uncertain at this time on the evolution of this potential feature, there remains deterministic and ensemble support in this increase in tropical moisture with the latest EPS showing probabilities of 70-80% for PWAT values greater than 2 inches spreading across the area by mid to late week. As a result, high rain chances with slightly cooler high temperatures will be the general theme of the forecast for much of next week for now given the increase in cloud cover but latest trends on how this potential CAG evolves will need to be monitored to better iron out expected conditions and impacts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop mostly across the interior later today into this evening, though some flights restrictions will be possible at KLAL and SWFL terminals depending on how close in proximity this activity develops. This activity should generally taper off around 9 PM with VFR conditions then returning for the overnight hours. However, some additional showers and storms will be possible late morning/early afternoon before activity mostly shifts towards interior areas once again later in the day. Winds on Friday will be out of the west ahead of a cool front approaching from the north with winds around 7-10 kts throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic shifts further offshore with winds generally remaining westerly over the next several days as a cool fronts approaches Florida from the north. In addition, occasional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Gulf waters at times with locally hazardous seas possible in the vicinity of this activity. The front will stall across the northern half of the marine zones over the weekend before washing out into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Minimum RH values should generally remain above critical levels through the end of the week, though some locations may briefly drop into the upper 30s at times. Scattered showers and storms will mostly be favored for inland areas over the next couple of days as westerly winds will remain in place. The weekend will feature somewhat lower rain chances as some drier air spreads in but enough moisture should remain for some showers and storms for the southern half of the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 92 80 94 / 30 50 20 20 FMY 76 94 78 94 / 50 70 50 50 GIF 75 96 76 98 / 30 60 20 40 SRQ 77 92 79 94 / 30 40 20 30 BKV 72 94 72 96 / 20 50 10 20 SPG 80 91 82 92 / 30 40 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson