336
FXUS62 KTBW 112359
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A weak low pressure centered just offshore of Manatee/Sarasota
counties is leading to a corridor of heavier rainfall in
Sarasota. Between 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen with widespread
reports of flooding in the area. This heavy rain will shift to
the southeast over the next hour or two. Then, overnight, a
diminishing trend is expected in terms of coverage of rain and
storms, especially across the Tampa Bay region. On and off
activity will continue for SWFL throughout the overnight period.
Overall forecast remains unchanged with the heaviest rainfall
amounts through Saturday centered across Lee and Charlotte
counties where a Flood Watch is currently in effect.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Numerous rain and thunderstorms expected throughout the forecast
period for SWFL sites. A break in the convection is expected for
northern sites overnight with MVFR cigs continuing. Rain and
isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage again on Wednesday
morning. Brief IFR or lower conditions expected in heavier activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The pattern aloft over the region this afternoon features troughing
from the southeast extending over Florida and ridging centered to
the southeast of the state. Flow in between these features remains
out of the southwest, helping to transport a deep plume of tropical
moisture over the peninsula and generally keeping Florida within a
favorable region for divergence aloft. At the surface, a boundary
remains stalled across northern Florida, with a weak disturbance
trying to form along it. This whole setup has led to widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from just north of I-4
southward, with more scattered convection to the north. For the rest
of today, the highest rainfall totals should continue to be over
this same region and then for tonight, hi-res guidance continues to
show a period of lower coverage before picking back up again late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Highest rainfall totals have so
far been mainly over Lee County (5 inches or so) with a few other
areas seeing 2-4 inches in some training and then 1-3 inches
elsewhere. The potential remains to see another 1 to 3 inches
through today, and this will likely continue to cause some localized
flooding in these areas. The rest of the region should be able to
handle the rain given how dry it has been, and if we do get a bit of
a break tonight, that will help even more. However, this is all
dependent on where the heaviest rain falls and in what timeframe, so
things could certainly change as far as the Flood Watch, which
remains in effect for Charlotte and Lee Counties through at least
Thursday evening.

The forecast does not change a whole lot through the rest of the
week and into the weekend, with the highest rain chances continuing
for the southern half of the area. Event rainfall totals could end
up being over a foot or higher for some locations over southwest
Florida and likely much closer toward the Nature Coast. This heavy
rainfall and possible flooding will continue to be the main issue
over the next several days, and conditions will have to be closely
monitored for possible watches or warnings, especially with multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall expected to impact the same locations over
the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  87 /  60  90  80  80
FMY  76  85  76  86 / 100  90 100 100
GIF  76  87  75  88 /  80  90  80  80
SRQ  77  86  76  89 /  80  90  90  90
BKV  72  88  72  91 /  50  80  70  70
SPG  80  86  80  89 /  70  90  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close