956
FXUS62 KTBW 110721
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Current radar imagery early this morning indicates widespread
showers generally south of I-4 with a few embedded rumbles of
thunder. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis
indicates a shortwave trough to the north across the Mid-Atlantic.
The ridge that was over the Florida peninsula yesterday morning
has now flattened in response to this shortwave trough passing to
the north. There is an upper level jet that extends across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This jet puts the forecast area in the
favored left exit region for divergence aloft. At the surface, an
E-W stalled boundary stretches across the Florida Panhandle along
the northern Gulf Coast. Additionally, moisture is elevated
across the forecast area. Last nights 00z TBW soundings indicated
PW values over 2 inches. There is decent agreement among models
that PW values will surge to 2.5 inches across portions of SW
Florida later today. This would be near the maximum of
climatology for mid-June PW values. Due to all of these factors,
have 100% PoPs for today generally south of I-4 with PoPs tapering
to the north but remaining elevated. Looking at some of the
higher resolution guidance from the HREF, there is the signal for
the potential of up to 8-12 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
for portions of SW Florida. The ongoing drought and stream levels
generally below the 25th percentile for mid-June should limit any
widespread flooding issues, but there could be some localized
flooding issues in areas of poor drainage, especially if these
higher amounts are realized. For now, decided not to issue a Flood
Watch due to the antecedent conditions. We will need to monitor
rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours and may need to issue one
for later in the week if these higher amounts are realized. Temperatures
will be on the cooler side today with increased cloud cover and
precipitation highs will only climb into the low 80s to near 90.

Much of the same is forecast throughout the remainder of the work
week with elevated chances for showers/storms. The jet streak
across the north Gulf will continue and an upper level trough will
eventually pivot across the area later in the week. Models depict
slightly lower PW values on Wednesday and Thursday down in the
2.1-2.3 inch range. Regardless, these values are still near the
99th percentile of mid-June climatology for the area. Due to this,
heavy rainfall will continue to be in the forecast. Total
rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches still look to be a real
possibility across portions of SW Florida. Rainfall amounts really
do taper off north of I-4 with forecast amount of 1-3 inches
along the Nature Coast expected over the next 7 days. Once again,
highs will generally be in the 80s throughout much of the forecast
period. Severe storms are not anticipated with any of these
rounds of precipitation. Instability is limited in the overly
saturated atmosphere.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Numerous to widespread showers currently across the terminals.
Lightning activity has greatly decreased over the last couple of
hours but showers have become more widespread during this
timeframe. Due to this, started most terminals with either SHRA or
VCSH. Conditions have been MVFR to even IFR in these heavier
showers with VFR outside of these conditions. Will continue to
monitor trends and add VCTS or TS if needed in amendments.

Latest guidance suggests more showers/storms developing around the
12-15z timeframe and added VCTS or TSRA after this timeframe.
Timing each of these rounds of showers/storms will be extremely
difficult but tried to accomplish this in the TAFs. Winds
generally be from the south throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and storms have already begun to increase in coverage
across the waters. Rounds of showers and storms will continue
throughout the end of the week, with winds and seas higher near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Increased moisture and lift across the region will lead to numerous
to widespread showers throughout much of the week. Due to the
prolonged rainfall, no fire weather concerns are anticipated at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  78  86  78 / 100  80  80  70
FMY  84  77  86  77 / 100  90  90  90
GIF  85  75  86  75 / 100  70  80  60
SRQ  85  78  86  77 / 100  80  90  90
BKV  88  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  60
SPG  85  80  86  79 / 100  80  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley