Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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282 FXUS62 KTBW 050551 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 151 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions expected at least through midday across terminals. Then, a few storms could develop as the sea breeze moves inland therefore PROB30s were added after 17Z, but most of the activity should develop inland and be push back towards coastal TAF sites after around 20Z. The highest chances are for areas inland as well as along and south of the I-4, so TEMPO groups were added to PGD/FMY/RSW. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible where storms develop. East to southeasterly winds prevail before shifting west in the afternoon. Convection should push offshore during the evening hours with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. && .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Current forecast on track requiring no changes. Some interior convection toward SWFL continues to fire with an overall slow trend toward coastal areas, while Nature Coast convection currently remains limited to Levy/Citrus counties. The sea breeze is evident via radar and satellite situated generally along or near the I-75 corridor and has yet to fire any appreciable convection across WCFL, however the E coast sea breeze may trigger some activity over the next few hours as it arrives and intersects it, therefore expect the chance of a shower or storm to linger through at least sunset before eventually winding down for the evening across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 78 93 80 / 40 30 40 20 FMY 95 76 94 77 / 50 50 60 30 GIF 96 75 97 75 / 60 20 60 20 SRQ 94 77 93 78 / 40 40 40 20 BKV 96 70 94 72 / 40 20 40 20 SPG 93 81 92 82 / 40 30 40 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Hurt DECISION SUPPORT...Close