133
FXUS62 KTBW 151840
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
240 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A west-to-east expansive pocket of dry air is in place across the
central Gulf of Mexico and extends eastward into the west central
Florida peninsula. This region of drier air is sandwiched between
two separate baroclinic zones with deeper moisture across south
Florida and another region of deeper moisture across the northern
Gulf Coast. Due to the presence of the drier air, it has brought a
rain-free end to the weekend for the Tampa Bay area but the deeper
moisture across the northern and southern portions of the forecast
area will at least maintain scattered showers and isolated storm
chances through this evening. However, any precipitation activity
should then taper off overnight as diurnal heating fades but can`t
completely rule out some isolated activity near the coast at times
tonight as activity is expected offshore with the greatest coverage
off the Nature Coast. In addition, recent guidance continues to hint
at the possibility of patchy fog and/or low stratus tonight mainly
across the Nature Coast but there is some evidence that coverage
could extend further southward into southern interior areas.
Regardless, the ingredients for fog will once again be pretty
favorable given the moist soil conditions, small dewpoint
depressions, and a very light ENE flow but it also looks like high
clouds will continue stream across the area so this could be a
limiting factor.

A low pressure system off the US Southeast coast will continue to
gradually organize early this week and is projected to eventually
push into the Carolinas over the next couple of days, which also has
about a 50% chance of acquiring subtropical or tropical
characteristics before it makes landfall. While this system is not
expected to bring impacts to our forecast area, it will merge with
upper level energy from Francine`s remnants to produce a large cut-
off low that will meander around the central Appalachians into mid
week or possibly even later. This large cut-off low will be rather
slow to move for an extended period of time due to a blocking upper
ridge in southeast Canada/New England so Florida will generally be
in cyclonic flow aloft for much of the week ahead. Given the more
westerly/northwesterly flow aloft that is expected, overall drier
air should filter into the region compared to last week with PWATs
looking to range around 1.5-1.8 inches most days. However, the
surface pressure gradient across the local area is expected to be
rather weak so daily sea breeze circulations will occur and interact
with the persistent stationary frontal boundary that has been in
place to produce daily chances of scattered showers and storms. The
blocking ridge to the north may then eventually help to retrograde
the upper low back towards the Florida peninsula late week and into
the weekend to possibly bring an increase in precipitation coverage
by the end of the long term period, but high uncertainty remains in
model solutions at this time on how this upper level pattern
evolves. In addition, temperatures throughout much of the week look
to be consistent with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s
and triple-digit heat indices, though it appears that values will be
less than advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day
as dry air continues to filter into the area and limit rain
chances. However, lingering low level moisture will bring the
chance of low stratus or possibly fog overnight but confidence in
overall coverage is low at this time, though CIG/VSBY
restrictions will be possible. Otherwise, scattered VCTS could
develop late morning into early afternoon on Monday as moisture
recovers and the sea breeze spreads inland so additional brief
restrictions could occur within any precipitation activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak frontal boundary will remain stationary across the region
into the new week with winds generally be from the northeast in
the morning hours before shifting onshore as the sea breeze
develops during the afternoon over the next couple of days. A weak
surface pressure gradient will keep wind speeds between 5-10 kts
and seas less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While some drier air has filtered into parts of the area, minimum
relative humidity values are still expected to remain well above
critical levels well into the new week. Winds will generally be
out of the northeast in the morning hours before switching onshore
in the afternoon hours over the next couple of days with wind
speeds around 5-10 mph. This overall wind pattern will support
daily scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze
circulation, but the fire danger will remain low due to recent
rainfall and wet soil conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  90 /   0  30  10  30
FMY  78  91  77  91 /   0  20  20  40
GIF  76  92  75  92 /  10  40  10  40
SRQ  77  90  76  91 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  73  90  72  91 /  10  40  10  40
SPG  80  90  80  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close