368
FXUS62 KTBW 081922
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
322 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A strong ridge axis is situated over the Central Gulf coast. The
placement of this ridge continues advect more of a continental
airmass over the northern half of the FL peninsula as tropical
moisture tries to lift northward with a surface WSW flow in place.
Outside of SWFL, drier air has generally won out. This has meant
warm, humid conditions favoring feels like temperatures of 100+ this
afternoon away from areas that experienced rainfall. However, even
those locations that did experience rainfall are now warming with
clearing skies. This may lead to a few more storms yet for this
afternoon and evening.

There is little change to this pattern for tomorrow. SWFL has the
best chances for storms with additional moisture and less of a WNW
flow when compared to Central FL and North FL. Elsewhere, it is
going to be another hot, humid day with "feels-like" temperatures in
the triple digits. Residents and visitors alike should remember to
practice good heat safety this weekend.

The good news is that this hot and dry pattern is coming to an end.
Just looking at satellite imagery, one can note the plume of
moisture and considerable cloudiness that is stretching across the
Western Caribbean. Over the next few days, that moisture axis
will lift northward over the Florida peninsula. When combined with
the warm summer weather, this favors an active week of showers
and thunderstorms across the entirety of the region, hopefully
yielding beneficial rainfall. There is still plenty of
uncertainty in the exact specifics of impacts, but one can
certainly say that the rainy season is kicking into high gear this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

While a few isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible across the
interior this afternoon, impacts to terminals are unlikely. However,
with increased moisture and instability across SWFL, some early
morning showers are possible beginning tomorrow morning, much like
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A WSW wind flow continues today with light winds and seas. Coastal
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across SWFL tomorrow
morning, but are likely to increase in coverage across the remainder
of the area by the middle of the week. Locally hazardous winds and
seas are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Warm, but humid weather continues across the Florida peninsula, with
scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms expected across
SWFL tomorrow. A pattern change is getting underway, however, with
numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected by
mid-week. This should yield significant improvement to dry soil
conditions. Even as dry weather continues, concerns for red flag
conditions are low with ample RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  80  92 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  79  93  79  92 /  30  60  40  80
GIF  77  97  77  95 /  20  40  10  50
SRQ  79  92  79  91 /  20  40  20  60
BKV  72  95  72  94 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  82  92  83  91 /  10  30  20  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery/Pearce