197
FXUS62 KTBW 220709
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
309 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

An overall quiet weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days. High pressure just to our north will shift slightly
south during the early part of the week in response to a trough over
the Great Lakes dipping south. The location of the trough axis will
lead to light easterly flow through the middle of the week. This
flow pattern, coupled with the drier air that has become established
over the region, will lead to isolated rain chances each afternoon.
The best chances of rain will exist along the west coast and just
offshore as the sea breeze pushes west during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Greater uncertainty in our forecast as we move into the the second
half of the week as all eyes remain on the tropics. Confidence is
increasing that an area of low pressure will become more organized
in the Caribbean and move into the Gulf around mid week. Beyond
initial development, models vary greatly regarding forecast track
and intensity. This means a number of possible outcomes for West-
Central Florida as we get into the end of the week. At the very
least, moisture looks to increase for the region leading to
increasing rain chances by the time we get to Wednesday, lasting
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions across the region this morning. Light northeasterly
flow is expected through the period with coastal sites seeing on
shore flow during the afternoon hours. Isolated shower/thunderstorm
chances during the late afternoon/early evening timeframe primarily
for SWFL sites, though confidence remains too low at this time to
include mention in TAF. Convection should be moving off shore around
02Z with light ENE flow overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Quiet weather pattern through mid week with high pressure in place.
Light winds remaining under 15 kts through Monday. Still
significant uncertainty regarding possible tropical development in
the Caribbean Sea that looks to lift north into the Gulf toward
the end of the week. At a minimum we will see winds and seas
increasing starting on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

No fire weather concerns through the period. Lower rain chances
continue through mid week with light winds expected. However minimum
RH values will remain well above critical thresholds. Rain chances
increase for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  93  75 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  10  10  30  10
GIF  92  75  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  93  75  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  93  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  92  79  93  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Fleming