358
FXUS62 KTBW 150040
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
840 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Made a few adjustments to forecast grids to account for the
latest convective trends across the area, otherwise no additional
changes necessary. Clusters of showers and storms remain ongoing
across the Nature Coast and WCFL, pushing off to the west toward
the W FL coast accompanied by heavy rainfall and occasionally
gusty winds. Threat looks to remain sub-severe but a few wind
gusts in the 40-50 mph range remain possible, along with isolated
rainfall totals of 2-3 inches possible with the areas of heaviest
rainfall. Improving conditions likely late evening into tonight as
activity weakens and moves offshore, with partly cloudy skies
expected under fairly light winds and humid conditions and lows in
the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Some tropical moisture still lingers over south florida, from the
low pressure surface that has  moved off into the Atlantic. This
will keep most of the shower activity south of I4 once again.
However some sea breeze convergence could happen close to sunset
aiding the development of some showers and storms over the interior.
These should progress towards the west coast through the evening
hours. Tomorrow a very similar set up is likely, with isolated
showers possible down south, becoming more widespread in the
afternoon. Showers and storms should help moderate temperatures
throughout the week, keeping the highs a little closer to normal for
this time of year. Isolated heat indices into the triple digits
possible throughout the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Evening convection moving west toward the C FL coastal terminals
will maintain the potential for a period of sub-VFR conditions
for the northern terminals through the evening before diminishing
during the early overnight period. VFR conditions expected through
the remainder of the overnight period with mostly light winds.
Winds increase out of the S-SW late morning into afternoon, with
the chance of showers and storms returning for much of the
afternoon and into the evening before gradually diminishing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This evening onshore winds will diminish and become light and
variable overnight before increasing tomorrow afternoon as the sea
breeze develops once again. Winds become more easterly moving into
Sunday and by Monday increase to around 10-15kts sustained. Tuesday
winds could get close to cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Ample moisture and soil saturation has helped decrease any fire
weather concerns through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  78  92 /  60  70  30  60
FMY  77  87  76  91 /  50  60  30  50
GIF  76  90  75  92 /  50  70  20  50
SRQ  77  89  76  92 /  50  70  40  60
BKV  72  93  72  94 /  60  60  30  50
SPG  81  89  81  92 /  60  70  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis