Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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314 FXUS62 KTBW 100007 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 807 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 There are just a couple isolated showers left in extreme eastern portions of Polk and Highlands Counties as activity winds down across the entire state. Early data from the 0Z sounding shows that the pronounced dry layer remains starting around 700mb and continues to be the main barrier for convective development. No surprise with the ridge axis remaining overhead. The main adjustment for this evening has been to lower POPs for tomorrow. This dry air has proven to be very persistent and a significant barrier to convective development. Tomorrow should be the final day where this is significant. As the moisture deepens Tuesday, that barrier will erode. Aside from some adjustments to the POPs, no major changes have been made. The forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Convection continues to be the main concern, but trends suggest that most sites are unlikely to see any significant impacts again tomorrow. If they are to occur, it would likely be from 16Z to 17Z to around 20 to 21Z. SWFL is the only area where there is still the potential for a few early to mid-day storms before the westerly flow carries them inland. Just beyond the current TAF period, however, convective impacts become much more likely as a surge of tropical moisture favors convection at nearly anytime for the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 93 79 88 / 0 20 70 80 FMY 79 92 78 87 / 20 40 70 80 GIF 76 96 76 89 / 10 40 50 80 SRQ 80 94 78 89 / 10 20 70 80 BKV 72 95 74 89 / 0 20 50 80 SPG 82 91 80 87 / 10 20 70 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery