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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
150 FXUS62 KTBW 132325 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Most of the activity has dissipated with exception of a line of storms near LAL. This trend should continue through the evening and VFR ceilings/visibilities are expected until about 07Z when chances for showers increase. After the mid morning, daytime heating combined with ample moisture should allow thunderstorms to begin to develop, especially across SWFL. Convection is anticipated to be on and off through the afternoon and early evening hours. However, there guidance tries to keep it over southern terminals into the night. MVFR/IFR conditions along with erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. West to southwest winds prevail. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over Central and N Florida. The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the next few hours. Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens, winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature, at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime conditions return and last into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 93 79 90 / 40 50 30 60 FMY 76 89 77 89 / 60 70 60 80 GIF 75 94 76 93 / 50 70 40 60 SRQ 76 92 77 91 / 30 40 50 70 BKV 71 95 73 95 / 40 40 30 60 SPG 81 92 82 91 / 30 40 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt