268
FXUS62 KTBW 191323
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
923 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong high pressure north of Bermuda continues to ridge west-
southwest over the southeast U.S. Interaction between this high
pressure and a tropical wave northeast of the Bahamas and another
area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is producing
gusty easterly winds over Florida for the next couple of days. The
12Z morning sounding is showing an uptick in moisture from 24 hours
ago with a PWAT of 1.61 inches. Latest visible satellite imagery and
surface observations continue to show mostly cloudy skies over west
central Florida with some pesky low clouds continuing through the
morning. Latest radar is already showing showers and a stray storm
or two over the east coast and will slowly make its way westward
through the afternoon. No changes needed to current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Some low clouds will linger at the northern terminals for the next
couple of hours, then becoming VFR by late morning. Gusty easterly
winds will persist through the day with gusts up to 20 knots
possible. SHRA and TSRA will be moving into the area from the east,
so will hold TEMPO TSRA at all terminals between 17-22Z this
afternoon. Winds and rain chances decrease overnight after 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A tight pressure gradient remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
for the next couple of days. This is producing gusty easterly winds
that has warranted the continuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the
eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon. The gradient weakens by
Thursday evening with decreasing winds expected for the latter part
of the week and into the weekend. Daily afternoon showers and
storms will be possible each day through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  92  77 /  60  20  40  20
FMY  91  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
GIF  90  75  90  74 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  93  76  95  75 /  60  30  50  30
BKV  91  73  92  72 /  60  20  40  20
SPG  92  80  93  80 /  60  30  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close