802
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 11-Jun 13 2024

             Jun 11       Jun 12       Jun 13
00-03UT       4.00         2.00         1.33
03-06UT       4.00         2.33         1.33
06-09UT       2.67         3.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         1.33
12-15UT       3.00         2.67         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         1.67

Rationale: G1 (minor) storm conditions are likely on 11 June as CME
effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024

              Jun 11  Jun 12  Jun 13
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
slightly enhanced through 11 May, then decrease to normal levels on
12-13 May, barring any further enhancements.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 10 2024 1840 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024

              Jun 11        Jun 12        Jun 13
R1-R2           55%           50%           45%
R3 or greater   20%           15%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-class flare
activity (R3/Strong), for the remainder of 11 Jun. On 12-13 Jun, there
is a decreasing chance for M-class flares, with only a slight chance for
isolated X-class flare activity as Region 3697 moves further beyond the
SW limb.