Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
783
FXXX10 KWNP 201231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2024
Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22
00-03UT 2.00 1.67 4.00
03-06UT 1.67 1.33 3.33
06-09UT 1.67 1.00 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.00 2.33
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 2.00
15-18UT 1.33 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 0.67 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 1.33 3.33 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024
Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024
Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely over 20-22
Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due
primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713 and 3716.