786
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2024

             Jun 23       Jun 24       Jun 25
00-03UT       1.33         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         1.33
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         0.67
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         1.33
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024

              Jun 23  Jun 24  Jun 25
S1 or greater   15%     15%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms on 23-24 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 23 2024 0630 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024

              Jun 23        Jun 24        Jun 25
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 23-25
Jun, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events on 23-24
Jun.