Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
263 FXXX10 KWNP 230031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2024 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 1.33 06-09UT 2.33 1.67 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 0.67 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 23-25 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 22 2024 0855 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2024 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R2-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 23-25 Jun due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.