Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
491 FXXX10 KWNP 240031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 24-Sep 26 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 24-Sep 26 2024 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26 00-03UT 3.67 1.67 4.00 03-06UT 3.33 1.33 3.33 06-09UT 3.67 1.33 2.67 09-12UT 3.00 4.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 2.00 15-18UT 1.67 3.33 1.33 18-21UT 1.67 3.33 1.33 21-00UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 25 Sep due to a glancing blow CME along with High Speed Stream influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2024 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 23 2024 1456 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2024 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3- Strong) flares on 24-26 Sep.