Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
893
FXXX10 KWNP 260031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 26-Jun 28 2024
Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
06-09UT 1.33 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.33 1.33 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.33 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024
Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 25 2024 1245 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024
Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity are likely through 28 Jun given the history of AR3723 and