848
FXUS65 KTFX 062104
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
304 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Mainly sunny, warm and dry conditions with relatively light winds
are expected today before a weak cold front brings a return to
near normal temperatures across the Plains. While temperatures are
generally expected to warm next week, there is unusually high
uncertainty as a few weak systems try to push through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Slight cooldown across the plains tomorrow

-Temperatures generally expected to rise next week, though there
is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday

-Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through next
week, mainly across Southwestern Montana

Through Saturday As a weak area of high pressure traverses the
area today, skies have been nearly crystal clear as temperatures
have pushed into the 70s across North Central and Southwestern
Montana with light winds. Expect this mild and quiet weather to
largely continue through the remainder of the day, with just a few
clouds passing overhead across the Southwest and along the Hi-
Line. Biggest weather feature of the next 24 hours will be the
passage of a weak surface cold front across the Plains late this
evening and overnight, which will bring a return to seasonable
temperatures across the plains for Friday and Saturday even as
highs across the Southwestern Valleys remain 5-15 degrees above
average. Overall this front should pass through the area with
little fanfare, though there may be an isolated shower north of US
2 overnight tonight. Friday and Saturday will bring the
development of a few showers and possibly thunderstorms across the
higher terrain south of I-90, with the main concern from these
showers being isolated lightning strikes.

Sunday through next Thursday As we head into next week,
uncertainty grows rapidly as a few weak weather systems try to
ride over the ridge. Overall, this will lead to a few
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, especially across
Southwestern Montana. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and
low 80s across North Central and Southwestern Montana, though
there is quite a bit of room between the 10th and 90th percentile
temperatures each day next week (10-15 degrees for some
locations). This indicates that temperatures each day will be
highly dependent on how these individual waves track, and with as
much uncertainty as there is right now I have elected to go with
a middle ground solution with respect to temperatures, while
having a mention of showers across Southwestern Montana. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...

06/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected throughout the duration of the 0618/0718
TAF period, with the only noticeable impact to terminal operations
being a wind shift to the north over the plains of Central and North
Central Montana on Friday as a weak front pushes south from Canada. -
Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  66  42  67 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  55  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  81  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  46  76  42  77 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  51  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  70  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  47  68  45  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls