282
FXUS65 KTFX 121059
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
459 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected over the next couple
of days while temperatures generally run above average. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive this weekend as
another weather system moves through the area bringing cooler and
windier weather.

&&


.UPDATE...

The main reason for the update this evening was to increase
winds/gusts in the Cut Bank area through the rest of the evening.
A nose of stronger winds is getting closer to the surface in this
area, but with daytime heating fading, the mixing height will
also begin to fall. This should result in stronger winds/gusts
tapering off a bit after sunset. Given the sporadic nature of
stronger winds/gusts through the remainder of the evening, we are
continuing to opt to handle the situation with a Special Weather
Statement, rather than issuing a short-term High Wind Warning.
Trends will continue to be monitored over the next couple hours.

The only other tweak worth mentioning was to increase PoPs along
the immediate Rocky Mountain Front and across eastern portions of
Southwest Montana, where a few showers have developed. No other
changes were made at this time. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...

12/12Z TAF Period

Widespread VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty
westerly winds and turbulence will be the primary concern through
this evening as deep layer mixing increases with the onset of
diurnal heating. Wind gusts will generally stay in the 25 to 45 kt
range, highest over the Rocky Mountain Front and North-central
Montana. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 226 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024/

Tonight thru Wednesday... Breezy conditions will continue over the
next couple days as temperatures remain well above average.
Overall the strongest winds are expected before midnight tonight.
When looking at the potential for high wind, a stray gust above
60 mph cannot be ruled out along the lower elevations of the Rocky
Mountain Front. But the probabilities of widespread impacts for
both the lower and higher criteria zones makes it difficult to
justify going with a high wind warning at this point in time.
Thus, an SPS has been issued for the Browning and Cut Bank areas
which should cover the main threat. Otherwise, winds will start to
taper off later in the afternoon on Wednesday into the evening.

Thursday and beyond... Another brief period of transient ridging
aloft will bring calmer winds and continued dry conditions for
Thursday and much of Friday before another Pacific trough brings
unsettled conditions next weekend. Although uncertainty remains
with the specifics of this system, most ensembles favor the
primary circulation and moisture staying north in Canada, which
reduces the likelihood for widespread rainfall for North-central
and Southwest Montana. The first opportunity for precipitation
comes later Friday into Saturday when southwesterly flow and a
cold frontal passage encourage a period of shower and thunderstorm
development. Breezy to windy conditions and cooling temperatures
are then expected for the remainder of the weekend with another
chance for scattered showers late Sunday into Monday. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  47  70  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  79  46  83 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  49  79  43  81 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  42  76  37  79 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  47  80  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  53  76  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  74  43  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls