Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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270 FXUS65 KTFX 072341 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 540 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will continue moving southward through Southwest Montana through this evening, with a re-enforcing cold front surging south across the entire Northern Rockies Saturday afternoon and evening. These fronts will bring scattered clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to the Northern Rockies through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions will persist until late Sunday when a passing weather disturbance brings a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, with these chances for precipitation lasting through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Sunday morning...a cold front, which passed through the plains of North Central and Central Montana this morning, was beginning to move across the I-90 Corridor early this afternoon. This front will continue to advance south towards the Idaho border through the evening hours tonight and bring gusty north through the remaining valleys of Southwest Montana thanks to strong pressure rises further to the north as surface high pressure slides south along the Canadian Rockies. Weakening cold air advection into Central and Southwest Montana behind the aforementioned front will help to mitigate the temperature change from today`s highs through Saturday afternoon across the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana; however, a re-enforcing cold front surging south Saturday afternoon (plains of North Central and Central Montana) through Saturday evening (valleys of Central and Southwest Montana) will then bring the "coolest" temperatures of the next week to all locations for the day on Sunday. Predominately dry conditions are expected throughout the period, but an inconsequential sprinkle or mountain shower can`t be ruled out. - Moldan Sunday afternoon through Monday... a passing shortwave begins to exert an influence over the Northern Rockies, with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity expanding in a southwest to northeast fashion, peaking in coverage on Monday. Timing is not very favorable for strong to severe storms at this time, but forecast soundings for Monday do indicate that gusty winds may accompany some storms with modest instability and inverted V profiles, mostly over Central and Southwest MT. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with transient ridging moving in on Tuesday and boosting temperatures to around 10 to 15 degrees above average before a more zonal sets up for the mid-week period and cools things down closer to average and increases winds. Aside from a few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mostly dry conditions can be expected through early Friday. There is some concern for low relative humidity and gusty winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, although grassland fuels still have some moisture to give for now. Most ensemble suites highlight a Pacific trough bringing unsettled conditions for next weekend, but there a significant disagreements regarding position, timing, and depth. - RCG && .AVIATION... 08/00Z TAF Period A quiet pattern for the TAF period. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Isolated light rain showers along the MT/ID border wind down this evening. Breezy surface winds from the passing cold front in Southwest MT decreases this evening. -Wilson Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 68 43 66 / 10 10 10 0 CTB 43 63 39 63 / 10 10 10 0 HLN 48 79 49 73 / 0 0 10 20 BZN 45 78 47 72 / 10 10 10 20 WYS 41 76 43 73 / 10 10 10 50 DLN 45 81 45 75 / 0 0 10 40 HVR 47 68 41 64 / 10 10 10 10 LWT 44 68 42 65 / 10 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls