714
FXUS65 KTFX 070527
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...

Mainly sunny, warm and dry conditions with relatively light winds
are expected today before a weak cold front brings a return to
near normal temperatures across the Plains. While temperatures are
generally expected to warm next week, there is unusually high
uncertainty as a few weak systems try to push through the area.

&&

.UPDATE...

Minor changes were made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints
overnight to better reflect current observations and trends. Sky
grids were tweaked to better match current satellite imagery.
Winds were increased and adjusted to better reflect current
observations and trends. Pops across Southern Southwestern
Montana were increased to better reflect current radar imagery.
Pops across other locations of North-central and Central Montana
were increased to reflect current trends and Hi-res model
guidance. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is on track.

Tonight there will be scattered showers across Southwestern
Montana. A weak cold front will move through North-central and
Central Montana tonight which will cool Friday`s high temperatures
to seasonal averages for those locations. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...

07/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions continue for all airfields through the TAF period.
There is potential through the morning hours for KLWT to KCTB to see
some low VFR cloud coverage, but confidence is low to include it in
the TAF during this time period as there are higher level clouds
moving across this area tonight. High to mid-level cloud coverage
across Southwest Montana continues to move eastward through the
overnight hours. Webb


Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024/

Key Points:

-Slight cooldown across the plains tomorrow

-Temperatures generally expected to rise next week, though there
is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday

-Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through next
week, mainly across Southwestern Montana

Through Saturday As a weak area of high pressure traverses the
area today, skies have been nearly crystal clear as temperatures
have pushed into the 70s across North Central and Southwestern
Montana with light winds. Expect this mild and quiet weather to
largely continue through the remainder of the day, with just a few
clouds passing overhead across the Southwest and along the Hi-
Line. Biggest weather feature of the next 24 hours will be the
passage of a weak surface cold front across the Plains late this
evening and overnight, which will bring a return to seasonable
temperatures across the plains for Friday and Saturday even as
highs across the Southwestern Valleys remain 5-15 degrees above
average. Overall this front should pass through the area with
little fanfare, though there may be an isolated shower north of US
2 overnight tonight. Friday and Saturday will bring the
development of a few showers and possibly thunderstorms across the
higher terrain south of I-90, with the main concern from these
showers being isolated lightning strikes.

Sunday through next Thursday As we head into next week,
uncertainty grows rapidly as a few weak weather systems try to
ride over the ridge. Overall, this will lead to a few
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, especially across
Southwestern Montana. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and
low 80s across North Central and Southwestern Montana, though
there is quite a bit of room between the 10th and 90th percentile
temperatures each day next week (10-15 degrees for some
locations). This indicates that temperatures each day will be
highly dependent on how these individual waves track, and with as
much uncertainty as there is right now I have elected to go with
a middle ground solution with respect to temperatures, while
having a mention of showers across Southwestern Montana. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  66  42  67 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  57  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  81  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  46  76  42  77 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  51  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  70  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  47  68  45  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls