084
FXUS65 KTFX 081135
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
535 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Quiet weather conditions today with cooler temperatures across North
Central Montana this weekend. A few general thunderstorms and
scattered rain showers develop Sunday night into Monday across
Southwest and North Central Montana. Then a quieter weather pattern
returns with near normal temperatures and a few days seeing breezy
conditions next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday afternoon... Another cold front moves through
our region this afternoon bringing another day of pleasant weather
and cooler than normal (comfortable) temperatures. Dry conditions
continue today with our next weather system moving into Southwest
Montana tomorrow afternoon bringing scattered rain showers and a few
thunderstorms, especially along the MT/ID border through Sunday
night. Primary concerns with any developed thunderstorm on Sunday
afternoon and evening is a brief downpour, lightning, and gusty
winds. A few thunderstorms could become strong but not severe along
the MT/ID border where the primary concern is rainfall amounts
between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Some high resolution model guidances
are suggesting even higher rainfall amounts for Sunday night into
Monday morning, as precipitable water amounts are 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal that`s in agreement with an ensemble member
(NAEFS) for the trend of increasing precipitation with some storms
during this time period. We`ll continue to monitor the latest data
and update QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) if forecast
model trends continue to support some heavier rainfall amounts in
stronger storms. The weather system will move northeast across
Central and North Central Montana through the overnight hours
Sunday into Monday morning bringing scattered rain showers.
Through the morning hours and early afternoon Monday, the weather
system departs to our east with a quick different weather system
moving in from Canada along the Hi-line for Monday afternoon where
a few very light rain showers could occur.

Monday night through Friday... Upper level ridging is currently
favored by ensemble model guidance to build back for our region
Monday night that lasts through at least Wednesday. Surface high
pressure will contribute to mostly sunny skies and near normal
temperatures. Windy and breezy conditions are favored for Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoon with latest National Blend of Model 4.2
probabilistic data suggesting wind gusts reaching 40 mph is high
(greater than 75 percent) for along the Rocky Mountain Front. Past
the Cut Bank area along the Hi-Line, probabilities decrease for wind
gusts reaching over 40 mph during the Tuesday afternoon and evening
timeframe to below 50 percent. Relative humidity values on Wednesday
could reach into the teens, but fire weather concerns at this time
are low even with breezy conditions on Wednesday afternoon. Beyond
Thursday, uncertainty grows with ensemble model guidance on when
upper level ridging begins to break down and move out of our area.
Webb

&&

.AVIATION...

08/12Z TAF Period

Passing disturbances within a northwesterly flow aloft will maintain
periodic mostly mid- and high level cloudiness over the next 24
hours. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but lower clouds will
introduce lower VFR CIGs at times for northern areas and mountain
obscuration will increase along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front
after 09/00Z. Northerly breezes return this afternoon, especially
for northern areas and the north to south oriented southwest
valleys. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  45  69  50 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  65  40  64  46 /  10  10   0  30
HLN  81  50  75  54 /   0   0  20  60
BZN  80  47  74  50 /   0  10  30  70
WYS  76  44  73  47 /   0  10  50  70
DLN  82  48  75  51 /   0   0  50  70
HVR  68  43  67  49 /  10  10   0  50
LWT  69  43  68  47 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls