493
FXUS65 KTFX 060533
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1133 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as
upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a
few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90.
Sunday will see showers and thunderstorms possibly become more
widespread as a system pushes through, but the heat will return
early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

No update needed to the ongoing overnight forecast period.

Temperatures and winds are trending as forecast. Mostly clear
skies will allow temperatures at lower elevations to mostly fall
into the 50s by midnight as winds become light and less gusty,
then well into the 40s by morning. Mostly sunny conditions with
fairly light winds will persist through Thursday, allowing
temperatures to warm mostly into the mid 70s to lower 80s at
lower elevations. -Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...

06/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions, generally light winds, and a few high clouds will
prevail for all sites through the TAF period. -thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024/

Key Points:

-Above average temperatures are expected through the end of the
week

-Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening, mainly across Southwestern Montana

-Even warmer temperatures are looking likely next week, with a
75% chance of temperatures at least 10 warmer than average

Through Saturday Winds will continue to diminish across North
Central Montana through the afternoon as the upper level jet
streak that was above the area continues to push eastward away
from the area. While it will still be a bit breezy across all of
North Central and Southwestern Montana today, expect wind gusts
to top out around 25-35 mph across the area, with a few gusts to
45 mph around Martinsdale and in Northern Blaine County. Any
winds will quickly decrease after sunset as the inversion sets
up, keeping any wind above the ground.

For Thursday through Saturday, upper level ridging will build
across the Western US, which will keep temperatures above
average, especially across the Southwest, with mostly clear skies
save for a few showers that manage to pop up over the higher
terrain south of I-90.

Sunday through next Wednesday Clouds will increase through the
day on Sunday as moisture works into the area ahead of a weak
disturbance that will ride over the ridge that will be firmly
entrenched over the Western CONUS. As this disturbance pushes
into the area, expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop
over and move into Southwestern Montana before they push to the
northeast. Modeled atmospheric profiles suggest that these
thunderstorms could be capable of producing some localized heavy
rainfall, along with some isolated small hail and gusty winds. At
the moment, I dont think that widespread severe weather will be
an issue, but it is a situation that will bear some watching,
especially as models remain fairly uncertain as to how exactly
these showers and storms will evolve and how far north they will
make it (which is not uncommon this far out with a convectively
driven event).

Beyond Sunday, upper level ridging will remain the dominant
weather feature across the Western CONUS, which will generally
keep us warmer than average as the heat nudges into the Northern
Rockies. With that said, models seem to show some agreement that
some disturbances will move over this ridge and across Southern
Canada and the Northern US, which will give us a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms through next week. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  40  75  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  43  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  40  76  45  78 /   0   0  10  20
DLN  45  84  51  84 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  44  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  42  74  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls