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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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091 FXUS65 KTFX 011143 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 545 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Expect unsettled weather to continue through midweek this week as broad upper level troughing remains in place, bringing daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. A significant warm up is possible later this week as upper level ridging builds across the Western United States. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue each day through Wednesday -Near to below average temperatures expected to continue through Independence Day -Temperatures likely warm for the end of the week, though uncertainty remains Short term (through Independence Day)... Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Northern Rockies through Independence Day, keeping us generally cool and unsettled with daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For today, expect rain showers to be rather widespread across North Central and Southwestern Montana as the axis of the first in a series of troughs pushes through the area. Most of theses showers and thunderstorms will bring nothing more than some brief rainfall, though some small hail cant be ruled out with a few of the strongest storms. With this trough overhead, temperatures at lower elevations will generally be within 5 degrees of where they were on Sunday, though higher elevations will generally be noticeably cooler thanks to cooler air in the mid levels of the atmosphere associated with the through axis moving through the area. Even with this first trough axis clearing the area Monday evening, a second weak shortwave will move across Southern Alberta on Tuesday, helping to kick off a few scattered showers, though these should generally be confined to the Plains on Tuesday. Again, these showers and thunderstorms should generally only have some brief rainfall, though some small hail will again be possible. Showers and storms will become more widespread on Wednesday as a more substantial upper level trough digs into the area, providing more atmospheric support for widespread showers and thunderstorms, though upper level winds will generally result in these storms remaining weak and disorganized. Independence day will see showers gradually end as this system moves east, though temperatures will generally remain on the cool side with most lower elevations topping out in the low to mid 70s. Extended (Friday through next Monday)... A strong upper level ridge will begin to build across the Southwestern US late this week, and will begin to expand its influence to the Northwestern US by the weekend. As this ridge builds, expect temperatures to gradually rise, with high temperatures expected to push the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations. There does remain some uncertainty as to the exact strength, location, and shape of this ridge, however, which means that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how warm we are able to get (or even if we see much of a warm up for the weekend, as there is about a 30% chance of this warm up being rather insignificant). Ludwig && .AVIATION... 01/12Z TAF Period Just a few showers will affect mostly Southwest MT this morning, otherwise expect increasing chances for showers on Monday afternoon over much of the CWA. Held of thunder at most terminals for the morning, but there will be thunder at times over the CWA. Did add TS for this afternoon to most terminals. Additionally, northwest winds will increase at the surface for most terminal sites by late morning. Expect decreasing showers and lowering wind speeds this evening. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the CWA through the period. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 76 52 75 50 / 40 40 50 20 CTB 70 50 72 48 / 70 40 60 30 HLN 79 54 81 52 / 30 30 30 10 BZN 74 46 75 45 / 60 60 20 10 WYS 66 37 67 37 / 90 100 20 10 DLN 71 43 75 43 / 60 50 0 10 HVR 75 53 76 51 / 50 30 80 60 LWT 72 48 71 46 / 30 50 70 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls