242
FXUS65 KTFX 230547
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1147 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Fairly benign conditions will be in place across the Northern
Rockies through mid week. Temperatures will remain above average
through at least Thursday, with Wednesday looking the warmest. Winds
will be breezy at times, though do not look to be overly
impactful.

&&

.UPDATE...

Tonight there will be isolated rain showers across North-central
and Central Montana. Little to no accumulation is expected with
these showers. Due to an upper-level disturbance it will be windy
tomorrow across the plains of North-central and Central Montana.
For the update overnight lows across North-central and Central
Montana were lowered to account for faster cooling than was
forecast. Wind and Wind Gust grids were adjusted to better match
current observations and trends. Pop grids early tomorrow morning
were adjusted to better match the latest Hi-res model guidance. The
rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF Period

Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, but a
passing shortwave will maintain periods of mid- and higher level
cloudiness tonight into Monday and perhaps an isolated shower or
sprinkle. Mountain wave turbulence and instances of low level wind
shear is also be expected over Central/North-central MT in addition
to periods of gusty westerly surface winds. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 136 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024/

Through Thursday... A shortwave approaching within westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a noon-zero chance for a shower
across Central and North-central Montana tonight into early tomorrow,
otherwise the only impacts felt from this system will be a breezy
rest of the day and increased cloud cover heading into tonight.
Monday through Wednesday an upper level ridge will build in from
the west, allowing temperatures to climb even further above
average. Wednesday looks like the warmest day (Greater than 50%
chance for highs at or above 85 F across much of the plains)
before the ridge is broken down heading into Thursday.

As the ridge breaks down, winds look to become increasingly gusty
Thursday and Friday. The chance for a 50 mph gust at Cut Bank is
between 30 and 40% Thursday and Friday, with chances increasing
closer to the Rocky Mountain Front.

Overall the week looks dry, with just a slight chance for rain along
the Rocky Mountain Front at times late-week.

Saturday and Sunday... Ensemble guidance gives little confidence on
how the pattern will evolve next weekend. There is confidence in
troughing off the Pacific coast of Canada, but confidence quickly
decreases as to how quickly this troughing moves on shore as well
as its north/south positioning. Scenarios range from warmer and
drier condtions persisting to a cooler and wet latter half of the
weekend. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  74  48  83 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  46  71  49  82 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  51  73  49  82 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  42  72  43  79 /  10  10   0   0
WYS  32  65  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  41  69  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  47  73  48  81 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  46  67  46  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls