Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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423 FXUS63 KTOP 190817 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms continue this morning. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to a few instances of flash flooding and/or river flooding. - Above-normal temperatures expected Thursday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Southwesterly mid-level flow resides across the Central Plains this morning between an east coast ridge and western trough. As advertised, the surface front has stalled across the area overnight with surface convergence along the front and isentropic ascent over the front leading to persistent convection. Storms have been progressive enough to keep flooding concerns isolated in nature to this point, although the southeastward advancement of the front has slowed and storms are moving parallel to the front. PWAT values remain near 2" with skinny CAPE profiles and a deep warm cloud layer producing rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour. This could lead to additional flash flooding and/or river flooding through this morning as the line of storms slowly moves east. A perturbation near the OK/TX panhandles advects northeast later this morning, bringing another push of showers and storms to the area before precipitation becomes more scattered this afternoon. Showers and storms along with plentiful cloud cover will lead to a much cooler day area-wide, but especially along the Kansas/Nebraska stateline where highs will only be in the 70s. The front is lifted back north tonight into Thursday as the eastern ridge builds west into the Southern and Central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms may form near the warm front as it lifts north this evening and overnight. If storms impact the area, they could produce some small hail and gusty winds. The building ridge sets the stage for a warming trend Thursday into next week. Highs warm into the 90s Friday through the weekend with increasing confidence in temperatures reaching the upper 90s to near 100 degrees for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Dewpoints remain in the 60s to near 70 degrees through the entire forecast period, creating heat indices in the 90s to low 100s each afternoon. Monday and Tuesday look to be most concerning heat-wise given the forecast ambient air temperatures. As far as precipitation chances go, there could be a few pop-up showers or storms during peak heating Thursday with better chances (20-40%) coming Saturday into Sunday as a surface boundary moves through the area. Subtle perturbations moving around the aforementioned ridge could lead to additional storms Monday into the middle of the week, but predictability is low this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Watching storms build towards KTOP/KFOE while exiting KMHK early this morning. Think thunderstorm activity winds down over the next few hours. Models indicate MVFR cigs impacting sites after 12z, but upstream observations remain VFR, leading to uncertainty in timing and longevity of MVFR conditions. Confidence is low in how additional showers and embedded storms evolve through this afternoon; much of the daytime hours could feature off and on showers/storms. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan