187
FXUS63 KTOP 221744
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers early today, diminishing tonight into
  Monday.

- Much cooler today and Monday, near normal temperatures for the mid
  to late week and mainly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper low over western Colorado spilling showers and some
thunderstorms across mainly southern and eastern portions of Kansas
overnight. Model trends over the past few runs have been for a
faster and more positive tilt to the wave as it weakens and pushes
east. This keeps precipitation chances more limited with more
potential breaks in the cloud as early as today in central Kansas
and much of the area by Monday afternoon. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue in mainly southern areas early today but
a few could linger across east-central Kansas tonight into early
Monday until the trough axis exits. Some locations could get another
inch of rain but rates should be modest enough to keep flooding in
check. The effective cold front should be well south of the area by
midday and shift any severe concern out. Have bumped up high
temperatures closer the the upper third of guidance today and Monday
given the drier trend, but these values are still 20 to 30 degrees
colder than Saturday.

The next upper trough digs southeast into the northern Plains and
western Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday, though differences
in how the southern end of this trough behaves become apparent by
Tuesday afternoon. There is increasing agreement in a cutoff low
developing nearby which could bring a small chance for light rain
around Tuesday. Differences in the upper pattern increase into the
late week, at least partially impacted by a potential tropical wave
moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Dry conditions are more
likely than not with temperatures moderating back to late September
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Biggest concerns for TAF sites this morning has been low cigs
holding in IFR range. Upper system will slowly move eastward and
improve cig heights, becoming MVFR mid afternoon and lifting to
VFR by this evening. Added a few hours of showers to MHK as next
batch of light rain moves through into mid day. Could see some
showers near TOP/FOE in the early morning hours on Monday but
would have less impact on ceilings than today.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage