655
FXUS63 KTOP 141142
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above average temperatures continue through next week.

- Dry weather is favored through the weekend with precipitation
  chances increasing into the next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

08Z water vapor imagery depicts the system associated with remnants
of Francine still spinning over the lower Mississippi River Valley,
while broad cyclonic flow remains over the Pacific Northwest into
the Northern Plains. The better surface moisture from the post-
tropical system remains in MO, where dew points are in the mid 60s
per sfc obs. Easterly sfc winds are slowly advecting that moisture
into the area, though the high clouds are also slow to move in as
they are just east of the CWA as of 0730Z. Meanwhile, isentropic
lift at the 310K surface has produced scattered mid/high clouds in
central KS, covering much of the western half of the area. Much of
the model guidance favors the stratus from MO spreading westward
around sunrise, mainly impacting locations that haven`t already been
seeing cloud cover. Given that eastern portions of the area have
seen clearer skies to this point, temperatures have been allowed to
cool further with lower Td depressions. This could allow fog to
develop before the clouds move in. Probabilities of widespread dense
fog are low, but could see some patchy dense fog this morning before
it mixes out. The stratus looks to be slower to mix out, but should
scatter by mid-day. It`s also worth noting that the isentropic lift
in central KS has a low chance of producing isolated showers briefly
this morning, but this is only shown in a couple of the CAMs and
moisture in the column looks meager, so have kept PoPs between 10-
15%. Otherwise, expect another day with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

The pattern doesn`t change much heading into tonight and Sunday
morning, so will need to watch for stratus and/or fog redeveloping
in eastern KS overnight into early morning. Again, there is a small
chance for isentropic lift to develop an isolated shower or two in
central KS, but models are less convinced of that possibility so am
keeping a dry forecast at this time.

There is hope for more of a pattern shift and better rain chances as
we go through the next work week. Another longwave trough is progged
to amplify and deepen over the western US Sunday. Late Sunday night
into early Monday`s low rain chances in central KS still look to be
driven by isentropic lift similar to this weekend. Tuesday through
Friday, rain chances improve as vorticity advection strengthens
ahead of the trough axis. Lee sfc troughing should also develop
during that time, though the exact timing/placement of the
associated sfc boundaries are too uncertain this far out to have
high confidence on where/when the best rain chances are. As such,
have kept PoPs in the 20-50% range through much of the Tuesday-
Friday time frame. Temperatures look to hold steady with highs still
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Low stratus has spread across TOP/FOE terminals and is on the
doorstep of MHK based on satellite imagery. VLIFR conditions
are being observed at FOE, while TOP has seen steady lowering
through IFR and still wouldn`t completely rule out LIFR. Cigs
should begin to lift after 14-15Z as mixing commences, though a
return to VFR looks to be delayed until early afternoon. Winds
stay light from the east to southeast through the period. Will
need to watch for the possibility of stratus/fog redeveloping in
eastern KS early Sunday morning, but confidence in that
scenario is low at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha