538
FXUS63 KTOP 040545
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hit or miss thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into
early evening. Severe chances look low, but there could be hail or
gusty winds with stronger storms.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday late afternoon into
evening with large hail and damaging wind as the main hazards.

- Dry weather returns mid-week, then low chances of mainly
  nighttime storms arrive into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convectively induced vort max and MCV have been slowly moving across
the area throughout the day. A broader view of the upper air pattern
depicts the next trough over the Intermountain West, which will set
the stage for tomorrow`s weather. In the meantime, some breaks in
the cloud cover have allowed for some destabilization at the
surface, and CAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will keep thunderstorm
chances around with the MCV into the early evening hours. The HRRR
has been the only one of the CAMs that has captured the ongoing
convection in central portions of the CWA, although even that has
been inconsistent with the evolution of any further convection
through the afternoon and evening. With time, lift should be best in
eastern portions of the area as the MCV continues to progress, but
instability also decreases slightly as you go east. Have kept low
chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms mainly into this
evening, then decreasing in coverage overnight into early Tuesday.

For Tuesday, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to move
across the northern Plains while pushing a cold front across the
region. Most short-term guidance has this boundary starting to move
into north central KS counties in the late afternoon hours with
convergence helping to develop convection shortly thereafter (around
23Z). However, some guidance is later with a broken line of
thunderstorms, closer to 01Z. Northeastern KS counties remain closer
to the best upper support, where thunderstorms would have the best
chance of sustaining themselves. Increasing dew points into the
afternoon should allow for plenty of instability with 2000-3000
J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 35 kt should be sufficient for
organized updrafts assuming there is enough forcing to get them
going. Storms should exit the forecast area by around midnight.

Upper ridging develops over the southwestern CONUS mid-week,
favoring a dry pattern Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday looks warm
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday sees a slight cool-
down into the 80s. Northwest upper flow develops over the area by
the end of the week with weak perturbations rounding the ridge,
bringing chances for storms mainly during the overnight periods
Friday night into Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday. Chances
remain low due to the low-predictability nature with these weakly
forced systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR at sites with light southerly winds below 10 mph overnight.
Low stratus observed in OK is expected to lift northward
overnight, most likely impacting KTOP/KFOE on the low end VFR
side aft 12Z. Stratus scatters out mid afternoon as wind speeds
approach 10 to 12 kts aft 18Z. Sct TSRA may form along a front
in the 23Z-01Z time frame at KTOP/KFOE. Models are struggling
with the timing of coverage, lesser being towards KMHK so left
out the mention for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Prieto