286
FXUS63 KTOP 210957
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
457 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms early, then becoming widespread late
  today into late Sunday.

- Minor severe weather potential north this afternoon and southeast
  Sunday afternoon.

- Very warm today, much cooler Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms had redeveloped over
central Kansas overnight and should continue through the early
morning as warm-air advection slowly wanes. MUCAPE of less than 500
J/kg should keep this activity meager. Much of the daytime should be
dry until a mid-level speed max ejects northeast from the southwest
CONUS upper wave and a cold front sinks southeast into northeast
Kansas in the late afternoon. Convection is more likely with the
former item and may move into the frontal zone before updrafts
become established along it. Along with mid-level lapse rates around
6 C/km and deep layer shear less than 30 knots, severe weather
potential with the front is low. High temperatures should again
reach the 90s for much of the area despite considerable mid-level
cloud though still 5 to 15 degrees below record highs.

Periods of precipitation are expected tonight into Sunday evening as
the upper trough crosses the central Plains. Precipitable water
values reach around 2" tonight when the models agree that the
heavier amounts are likely, though NBM probabilities of over 1" in 6
hours are less than 50 percent, and the NBM 95th percentile for 6-
hour precipitation is around 1.6" which is 1" below even 1-hour
flash flood guidance with most places seeing little precipitation
recently. This keeps the flooding threat low. The cold front moves
through tonight into early Sunday afternoon. Shear and instability
again look rather limited by this point Sunday for severe weather
concerns. Considerable precipitation and cloud should keep highs in
the 60s to lower 70s, 5 to 10 degrees above record coldest highs.
SREF and NBM temperature spreads are in the 5 to 10 F range however.

A few showers could linger into Monday morning until the trough
exits, but much of the coming week appears dry with temperatures
close to normal with general ridging over the High Plains and
troughing to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 457 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Scattered high-based showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
should be becoming more isolated through 16Z. Impacts with
these should be minor. More robust and consistent convection is
anticipated from late afternoon through the remainder of the
forecast. TS may be more the exception than the rule, however
ceilings will drop to MVFR to IFR near the end of this forecast
behind a significant cold front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage