161
FXUS63 KTOP 131114
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid Today with afternoon heat indices of 101-110
  degrees. A Heat Advisory in effect from noon-8pm today.

- Isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon into the evening.
  These storms could be severe with large hail and damaging wind
  gusts being the main hazards.

- Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Early this morning a mid level wave was moving across southern
Manitoba into north Dakota heading into northern Minnesota and
southwest Ontario. Further south a ridge was present from the
Rockies into the southern and central PLains while a mid level low
was off the southern CA coast at 07Z. A frontal boundary extended
from northern Minnesota into western Nebraska with a moist airmass
ahead of it from the Gulf into the upper Midwest.

Excessive heat continues to be a concern for today as the mid level
ridge builds eastward into Kansas and a thermal axis extending from
the Rockies into northeast Kansas this afternoon. 850mb temps are
forecast to range from 25-28 degrees Celsius this afternoon and good
mixing with breezy southwest winds. Highs this afternoon will range
from the low 100s in central Kansas to the lower 90s areas southeast
of I-35. Adding in the humidity this afternoon heat indices are
forecast to range from 101 to 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect today from noon until 8 pm.

Attention then turns to convective potential this afternoon and
evening. WIth the above mentioned mid level trough moving into the
upper Great Lakes the frontal boundary will move southeast into
north central and northeast Kansas today, extending from northwest
Missouri to a low pressure over south central Kansas by early
evening. With the better forcing remaining to the northeast of the
area, convergence along the frontal boundary and the erosion of a
capping inversion may be enough to initiate storms later this
afternoon into the evening hours. The airmass along and ahead of the
front will be characterized by 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE, steep mid
level lapse rates along with 30 to 40kts of effective shear, which
would support severe thunderstorms. Inverted "V" soundings suggest
the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The CAMS continue to
highlight the 5 to 9 pm time period for the development of the
storms. Large hail will also be a concern which may be up to the
size of golf balls. The front moves south into southern Kansas later
tonight.

For Friday, an approaching shortwave trough across the ROckies will
cause the front to lift northward through the day as a warm front.
Storms are forecast to develop in the high Plains by late Friday
afternoon, then track eastward into north central and northern
Kansas during the evening and overnight hours. North central Kansas
will have the highest probability for storms (30-60 percent) during
the evening hours with the areas north of I-70 seeing storms
overnight. Shear and instability will favor damaging wind gusts and
large hail. A shortwave trough will move across Kansas and Nebraska
Saturday and Saturday night keeping chances for showers and storms
in the forecast. Again a few of the storms could be severe, mainly
near the Nebraska border into Nebraska.

Mainly dry conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday and may last
into Tuesday as well models are showing the front to remain to the
west of the area with precipitation holding off until possible
Wednesday. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s Saturday
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. A frontal
boundary will approach the terminals and move through MHK around
00Z and at TOP and FOE by 03Z. Isolated TSRA is possible near
the front and have added VCTS. Winds become southwest around
12kts with gusts to 22kts after 15Z, then shift to northerly in
the 00Z to 03Z time period at the terminals and decrease to
10kts or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53