Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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323 FXUS63 KTOP 041748 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this afternoon and evening today. - Dry and seasonably warm weather returns Wednesday through Friday. - Northwest flow aloft brings in multiple chances for overnight storms Friday and Saturday evenings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough axis rotating over northeast Kansas with an additional trough axis stretching across the western high plains. A weak cluster of storms has formed over southwest NE that may impact north central KS later this morning, if it can hold together. Also cannot rule out light showers or an isolated storm developing across far eastern Kansas through sunrise while the upper trough lifts in MO. Focus turns towards the cold front quickly progressing through Nebraska during the morning and afternoon, along with severe storms developing in north central Kansas as early as 18Z and as late as 22Z depending on which model solution you view. There is also indication that the decaying thunderstorms entering northwest KS may persist as an additional area of forcing before entering central KS by midday. This would develop a few severe storms along of south of I-70, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. If this occurs and exits by late afternoon, coverage of severe storms along the front may be confided to north of Interstate 70 and far east KS in the late afternoon to early evening. Another caveat that could lesser the severe storm coverage is the timing of the front and degree of sfc convergence along the boundary. While SFC CAPE rises to near 3000 J/KG with minimal inhibition in the late afternoon, mid level lapse rates are not particularly strong (6-7C/Km). Any storm that develops is still capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Convection will likely begin to congeal into a line and gradually weaken as it moves through far eastern Kansas and western MO from 00Z-06z. High pressure settles into the region Wednesday, bringing back sunny skies and lower dewpoints in the 50s. Amplified ridging to the west sets up northwest flow through the central region, progged to bring embedded vort maxes Friday and Saturday evenings. Ensembles focus the higher QPF (> 0.10 inches) Friday evening towards south central Kansas with perhaps some higher probabilities in northeast Kansas on Saturday evening. Winds remain light throughout the week while highs are in lower 80s with overnight lows around 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail. A diurnal cu field has developed over much of northeast KS and could keep scattered cloud bases around 2-3 kft through much of the afternoon. Any cigs that manage to develop should stay brief. The main concern this TAF period comes with thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. Some uncertainties with timing still remain, pending how convection currently in central KS evolves while it moves east and a cold front approaches from NE. After storms do move out with the front, winds shift to the north under 10 kt. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Picha