510
FXUS63 KTOP 311947
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
247 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and isolated storms continue this afternoon before
tapering off this evening and overnight.

- Off and on rain/storm chances remain in the forecast through
  early Wednesday mostly with nocturnal convection working east
  into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

19Z water vapor imagery and VAD wind profilers show our MCV
continuing to slowly move east across the area, while broader
cyclonic flow is evident across much of Canada and the northern
CONUS. At the surface, a weak boundary can be seen in central NE/KS
providing enough lift for a line of weak thunderstorms. The light
rain currently in our eastern counties should eventually move off to
the east into this evening as the MCV pushes east and low-level
subsidence takes over. The convection in north central KS should
move eastward as well, though it`s expected to weaken as it does so,
as instability decreases with eastern extent. Overall, this should
lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms gradually coming
to an end through the evening hours.

As sfc high pressure slides south from NE and through the area
tonight, quiet conditions are expected. One thing of note that`s
worth monitoring is that some guidance is suggesting potential for
fog overnight and especially around sunrise. Am not particularly
confident that this would be impactful and soundings seem to suggest
this would be more of a stratus situation, but am not willing to
completely dismiss the fog given the subsidence behind the exiting
system, light winds, and lingering moisture.

Saturday looks mainly dry until the evening and overnight hours. The
overall pattern this weekend into early next week looks like mainly
zonal flow with weak perturbations providing opportunities for late
night/overnight convection as these storm systems move east into our
area. Saturday night brings the first of these with storms progged
to develop in western/central KS late afternoon before moving
eastward. Our western counties late Saturday could see MUCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg with enough shear to support marginally severe storms
if they track into our area. Early CAM guidance suggests storms may
track along the instability gradient along the southwest edge of the
CWA. There are some differences between models on how soon any
storms move out Sunday morning or afternoon, but there should be
some dry time before the next disturbance brings another complex of
storms Sunday night into Monday. Depending on how much time the
atmosphere has to recover, this batch of storms may have more
instability to work with and could bring stronger storms over a
wider area. That said, each wave will have some impact on the next
one, so predictability on the finer details in this type of scenario
is low.

The more substantial upper trough looks to potentially impact the
area Tuesday into early Wednesday as it digs over the northern
Plains. This could bring storms along a cold front during this time
frame, although the better upper support looks to be north of the
area as of now. Cluster analysis has some variability in the
ensembles on how deep this upper trough will get, which will have
implications on whether sufficient upper forcing can get this far
south.

Longer range guidance is hinting at upper ridging developing over
the southwestern CONUS, which would support rising heights with
increasing temperatures into the middle of next week. Given the
uncertainties leading up to that time, however, there are also some
variations in timing and strength of that developing ridge. For now,
highs in the 80s are forecast for much of next week with lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MVFR conditions remain from MHK westward while eastern sites
have been steady at low-end VFR. Scattered rain will continue
this afternoon before tapering off this evening. There may be
additional showers/storms approaching from central KS toward the
evening hours, though these look to weaken before reaching TAF
sites so have left out this mention. There is a good signal for
MVFR to IFR stratus to develop overnight into Saturday morning.
Some guidance suggests potential for vis reductions with fog as
well, but think soundings look more like stratus. Still
something to consider for future issuances with subsidence and
light winds behind the exiting system.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha