Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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533 FXUS63 KTOP 171116 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon and evening - Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday late afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Diminishing cloud cover and light winds in a moist boundary layer may give rise to patchy mainly south of I-335 early this morning. The remainder of the day brings lots of sun with slightly warmer temperatures on modest low-level warm air advection. Models trending toward better chances for convective development along a weak cold front in the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Modest capping looks to remain in place with a weak upper ridge building so any activity looks to be fairly isolated. Went ahead with a mention along the boundary for these periods. Shear will be weak though MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg could produce brief severe weather. Thunderstorm activity could form in northwest Kansas Saturday evening and impact northwestern local areas into the night, though severe weather is not anticipated as instability weakens with time. More concern comes in the late afternoon and likely more into the evening as a shortwave moves northeast into western Kansas with a dryline sharpening under it. Differences in capping, dryline location and convergence along it, and how much early day convection could have on the environment bring questions of how this potential event will transpire, but NBM thunderstorm chances will be maintained. Wind fields in the mid and upper levels aren`t terribly impressive but CAPE again around 2000 J/kg and at least a moderate nocturnal low- level jet bring severe weather potential. Precipitation chances next week are not very clear with multiple shortwave moves moving through in mainly zonal flow aloft. The initial wave remains on track to move northeast through the region Tuesday, with a cold front swinging through in the midday. This may relegate the greater severe weather potential to the east. A second shortwave not far behind brings at least small precip chances Tuesday night, though much will depend on how far south the effective front will be. Timing of the next wave varies but small NBM PoPs Thursday seen justified. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Patchy ground fog at TOP and FOE should dissipate quickly despite light winds. VFR conditions should dominate with mainly thin cirrus. South to southwest low-level winds will be stronger at the end of this forecast and keep fog from forming. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage