Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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276 FXUS64 KTSA 251656 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Small scale wave across south central KS has helped maintain an area of weak convection through the morning though a steady decrease in coverage has occurred with eastward advance. This wave will make slow progress eastward and may aid isolated convection later today across NE OK and possibly far NW AR, but overall coverage is expected to remain very low. Dewpoint trends are running several degrees higher than forecast and the update will address these trends. This will impact heat index forecasts and should these higher values remain place into the afternoon then portions of the heat advisory may need to be upgraded. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection & redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height anomalies expand back into our area next week. Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate. Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier (and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions ongoing across the region and will largely continue through much of this forecast period. Weakening convection along the OK/KS line marks influence of passing wave and this feature may support additional isolated afternoon storms across NE OK / NW AR but coverage will be too low to mention. Additional storms may move into portions of the area late tonight through Wed morning. Coverage and placement both remain uncertain with slightly higher chances across western AR supportive of a mention through the morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any thunderstorm impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 78 100 74 / 10 20 20 10 FSM 99 78 98 76 / 10 30 40 10 MLC 97 78 98 74 / 0 20 20 10 BVO 99 73 98 69 / 20 20 10 20 FYV 96 72 95 69 / 10 40 50 10 BYV 96 72 92 68 / 20 50 70 10 MKO 96 77 98 73 / 10 30 30 10 MIO 96 72 94 69 / 20 40 30 10 F10 96 76 99 73 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 95 77 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...07