677
FXUS64 KTSA 291127
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Latest radar imagery/infrared satellite imagery show a cluster of
strong elevated thunderstorms advancing southeastward across
west/west-central MO, with a few storm developing on the backside
in southeast KS early this morning. Most recent runs of the HRRR
continue to show a few showers/storms developing across far
northeast OK and far northwest AR before sunrise, likely generated
from its outflow. Any rainfall from this should be short-lived
and amounts should be fairly light. Consensus in hi-res model
data show this activity dissipating between 14-16z/9-11 AM.

Another exceptionally hot day is in store for eastern OK and
northwest AR. Widespread high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s
will be common, with temperatures likely reaching the triple digit
along and west of Highway 75 in OK as well as much of the AR
River Valley. Heat indices are expected to climb to or above 100F
before noon at most locations. The most oppressive heat is
forecast to occur across much of eastern OK and west-central AR
where heat indices will climb above 110F for a few hours this
afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect between
noon and 9 PM. For locations in far northeast OK and far northwest
AR, heat indices will likely not be as extreme, ranging between
105-109F. As such, a Heat Advisory will also go into effect
between noon and 9 PM for this area. In summary, dangerous heat
will plague the entire region again today and all heat safety
protocols should be taken, especially if spending a prolonged
period of time outside. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting
clothes, drink plenty of water, take frequent air-conditioned
breaks, try to stay out of the sun, and do not leave young
children and pets in unattended vehicles.

Although the extreme heat is the main headline today, a cold
frontal boundary will slowly sag southward into the forecast area
by early this afternoon. Guidance continues to favor isolated to
scattered storms developing late this afternoon along the boundary
in northeast OK and far northwest AR. Despite a fairly weak
sheared environment, sufficient instability, moisture, and steep
low-level lapse rates will support strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts with the strongest storms that develop.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A frontal boundary will slowly and gradually push southward near
the I-40 corridor this evening/tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from late this
afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may
persist through the late evening/overnight hours, though
instability should decrease as the evening/night progresses.

A brief relief from the heat will occur on Sunday as the cold
front continues to sag southward through the forecast area as
widespread scattered showers/storms and cloud cover aid in the
cool down. A few models show a significant cool down, with the
ADJMET producing some of the coolest values of max temperatures
reaching the upper 70s/80s for most locations. Opted not to drop
temperatures quite that low at this time, but did knock
temperatures a couple of degrees lower than what the operational
NBM shows.

Mid/upper-level ridging will quickly begin to build back overhead
Sunday night into Monday. As such, precipitation chances also
significantly decrease Tuesday approaches. Did include a slight
chance of diurnally-driven showers/storms Monday afternoon, mainly
across southeast OK/west-central AR, as Sunday`s cold front lifts
back northward as a warm front. Otherwise, heat headlines are
expected to return through at least the middle part of next week.
By mid- late part of next week, trends in model guidance show
another weak cold front approaching from the north, which may
increase precipitation chances at the tail-end of next week into
next weekend. If this verifies, it would bring in a small relief
from the heat.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few showers will continue across portions of NE OK through mid
morning, which could briefly impact KBVO. Otherwise, southerly
winds will continue ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move
into far NE OK by late afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers/
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across portions of NE OK
this evening near boundary, potentially spreading into NW AR overnight.
Brief IFR conditions will be possible with any of the stronger
thunderstorm activity.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  86  74 /  20  40  30  10
FSM  100  79  91  75 /   0  20  50  10
MLC   98  77  91  75 /   0  10  30  10
BVO   98  69  82  70 /  20  50  30  10
FYV   98  72  87  69 /  10  40  50  10
BYV   98  72  84  68 /  20  50  50  10
MKO   97  75  88  74 /  10  30  40  10
MIO   97  70  84  70 /  20  60  30  10
F10   98  75  86  73 /  10  20  40  10
HHW   95  78  93  76 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ058-063-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12