623
FXUS64 KTSA 180141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
841 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the CWA are
finally winding down and should completely dissipate within an
hour or two. Conditions will be quiet for the remainder of the
evening. Overnight, areas of fog are expected to develop,
especially near areas that had rain today. Where fog does develop,
it will likely persist until after sunrise. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

We dry out and warm up for the weekend. We`ll likely see the first
90 degree high temps for 2024. There`s a decent signal that storms
will come off the dryline on Sunday afternoon well to our west,
and some of this activity may survive into NE OK Sunday night in a
weakened state. Capping looks stronger on Monday along the
dryline, so the focus shifts to a sagging front across KS. Storm
activity should stay north of the state line thru Monday night. As
the front sinks slowly southeast on Tuesday, storm chances will
increase across the region. Exact evolution remains uncertain, but
chances of severe weather will go up with strong flow aloft and
favorable late May thermodynamics. Storm chances continue
Wednesday with the front, mainly over the eastern and southern
portions of the forecast area. Storm chances will continue thru
the end of the week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Ongoing scattered convection will gradually wane after sunset with
any remaining terminal impacts being brief. Otherwise areas of fog
are again likely overnight with western AR terminals having the
higher potential for any prolonged dense fog. VFR conditions will
return area wide once the morning fog erodes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  87  65  91 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   60  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   57  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  84  57  88 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   58  83  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   60  85  63  88 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   59  84  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  64  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07