Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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581 FXUS64 KTSA 290025 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 725 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The remnants of a small MCS that tracked across western KS this afternoon could bring some measurable rain to the northwest of Tulsa in the near-term. Otherwise, we`ll have to wait and see what survives from the storms out west, which isn`t expected to be much given the weak instability in place over our area. Storms over the TX South Plains will likely organize into a southeastward moving MCS across TX tonight, and will more than likely miss our area to the south. Thus...only low PoPs/thunder probs were carried into our area after midnight. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Bulk of shower and storm activity gas remained to the west this afternoon, though some activity is noted across parts of NE OK. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight with any weak waves traversing the area in W-NW flow aloft. Slightly higher PoPs will be focused across the western portion of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Deep gulf moisture will continue to feed into the area through Friday while the upper pattern remains active. As is often seen, model spread regarding timing and placement of an any individual upper wave problematic, so including PoPs everywhere in most if not all periods of the forecast cycle is reasonable given the upper pattern. At this time, best chances for rain/storms appear to be late Thursday night into Friday as a more notable upper wave moves through. Additional, but lower chances for rain and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week as little overall change in the upper pattern is expected. Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next several days, though an isolated strong to marginally severe storm is possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR should prevail at all TAF sites this evening and overnight tonight, with mostly dry weather and scattered high clouds. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again by mid-morning Wednesday for eastern OK terminals and late morning/early afternoon for the AR terminals as a weak mid/upper level wave moves across eastern OK and northwest AR. Ceilings should remain above 3000 feet agl and VFR should generally prevail through much of the daytime. However, heavier showers/storms that roll over or approach any of the terminals may drop cigs/vsbys briefly to MVFR/IFR. Winds remain light and variable through this evening and night, then turn east/southeasterly and increase a bit during the daytime on Wednesday. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 78 63 79 / 20 50 20 30 FSM 66 81 65 79 / 10 60 20 20 MLC 64 79 63 78 / 20 70 20 30 BVO 59 78 59 79 / 20 40 10 30 FYV 60 80 60 78 / 10 60 20 20 BYV 60 77 58 78 / 10 50 10 20 MKO 64 78 63 78 / 20 60 20 30 MIO 60 78 59 79 / 10 40 10 30 F10 64 77 62 78 / 20 60 20 40 HHW 65 79 65 78 / 30 70 20 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...67