861
FXUS64 KTSA 292350
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Remnant MVC across the area this afternoon has resulted
in a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of NE OK, with
spotty shower activity noted elsewhere. Expect this to
diminish this evening which should leave most of the area dry
until late tonight, when PoPs will start to increase for parts of
NE/SE OK as another storm complex approaches from the W-NW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as
the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the
morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening
trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a
broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase
rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected
to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper
wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late
Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east
Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave
passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered
activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of
the weekend.

Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some
medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging
possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end
coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height
rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move
through Tuesday night/early Wednesday.



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated shower/storm activity occurring early this evening in
portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR will trend
downward as the evening progresses, ending by or just after sunset.
VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the evening
and overnight hours. A complex of thunderstorms will be moving
eastward into eastern OK by mid-late morning Thursday, and if
they hold together, into western/northwestern AR by late afternoon
or early evening. Still some uncertainty on exact timing of the
thunderstorm complex as well as how low ceilings will drop as it
approaches the region. Therefore, timing of precipitation may need
to be adjusted in future aviation forecasts. At this time, models
indicate VFR should hold and prevail through much of the day
Thursday. However, lower ceilings/reduced visibilities (MVFR/IFR)
are likely underneath heavier rain/storms that occur.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  64  81  65 /  50  20  50  70
FSM   82  65  83  67 /  50  20  50  40
MLC   81  65  81  65 /  30  20  60  60
BVO   82  60  81  62 /  40  10  50  80
FYV   82  60  82  65 /  50  20  50  50
BYV   82  60  81  62 /  50  20  50  40
MKO   79  63  79  65 /  50  20  50  60
MIO   82  60  81  64 /  50  20  50  60
F10   79  63  78  65 /  30  20  50  70
HHW   80  65  76  65 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67