Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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065 FXUS64 KTSA 290750 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Decaying thunderstorms from yesterday has generated an MCV, currently developing over western Oklahoma. Models in general agreement with shifting mid level feature eastward in the area today. This, coupled with daytime heating should be sufficient for scattered showers/thunderstorms. CAMS hinting at slightly better storm coverage this afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas where stronger diurnal heating will occur in the more cloud free areas initially, which seems reasonable. Lowered pops across the south this morning from the higher NBM guidance with more uniform chance PoPS this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Storms that develop in the high Plains this afternoon have the potential to form another MCS tonight, which could impact eastern Oklahoma late tonight into Thursday morning. Given the uncertainties regarding evolution of system, only chance PoPs seem warranted at this time. It should be noted that latest 06Z HRRR shows this scenario and PoPs may need to be increased if this trend continues. Better thunderstorms chances appear likely Thursday night into Friday as a stronger mid level wave shifts east into the southern Plains. Low level moisture will continue to increase ahead of wave and more widespread rainfall is expected during this time with locally heavy rainfall possible. Depending on timing, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day Friday south of I-40. Stronger westerly flow aloft will likely persist over the weekend into the early part of next week with a series of weaker disturbances possible. Shower/thunderstorm chances will therefore remain in the forecast through the extended periods with a slow warming trend through mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with some mid to high cloud cover spreading over the area. Continued cloud cover should keep fog from forming overnight, but some patchy light fog could be possible toward sunrise. Scattered showers will become possible again during the daytime hours with some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions could briefly occur within any thunderstorms. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots out of the southeast. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 82 64 79 65 / 50 30 50 60 FSM 82 66 79 66 / 50 40 40 40 MLC 81 65 78 66 / 50 50 50 50 BVO 82 61 78 62 / 40 30 40 60 FYV 81 61 78 63 / 50 30 40 40 BYV 82 60 77 61 / 40 30 30 30 MKO 79 64 77 64 / 50 40 50 50 MIO 82 61 78 63 / 40 30 40 40 F10 79 63 77 63 / 50 40 50 50 HHW 79 66 76 66 / 50 50 50 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...04