379
FXUS64 KTSA 281721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Elevated showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning
across NE OK & NW AR along a 700mb moisture axis with marginal
instability in place (<500 J/kg MUCAPE). Meanwhile a broad area of
rain/ embedded thunder persists across SE OK this morning in
association with ongoing MCS activity across N TX. Expectation is
for this convective complex to continue moving away from the area
with precip eventually ending across SE OK. However, scattered
showers/ storms are forecast to persist across E OK & NW AR this
afternoon as a subtle vort max traverses the region with better
instability spreading northward through the FA. Maintained slight
chance to chance PoPs for all zones, though precip should be on a
downward trend by late afternoon/ evening. Will likely get some
sun breaks later this afternoon with high temps in the 80s.
Otherwise the current forecast remains in good shape with no
significant deviations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue early this
morning across portions of southwest/south-central Oklahoma in zone
of stronger warm advection. Some of this activity will likely
move into portions of eastern Oklahoma later this morning. Although
instability/lapse rates will decrease as storms lift northeast, a
few could still produce large hail, especially across far southeast
Oklahoma where instability will be maximized.

Lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across
portions of the area this afternoon, but overall convective trends
should be decreasing as storms grow upscale/shift southeast into
NE TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Storms chances will persist for the next several days as a series of
upper level disturbances traverse in stronger northwesterly flow
aloft. Rich Gulf moisture will continue lifting north into the
area with PWATS remaining in the 1.5-1.75 inch range Wednesday
through Friday. Although specific timing of each system is obviously
difficult at this point, it appears models are in general agreement
with shifting a stronger upper wave out of the central Rockies
Thursday night into Friday. More widespread precipitation is
likely during this time with locally heavy rainfall possible.

High temperatures should remain near or slightly below normal for
the remainder of the work week given the increased cloud cover.
Stayed with NBM guidance for now. Precip chances will continue
through the weekend into the early part of next week given no
major upper level pattern change. At least low severe chances will
also be possible each day through the extended periods, although
widespread severe weather is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Outside of any influence from showers/ storms, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period for all TAF sites.
TEMPO groups were maintained through ~21z for NE OK/ NW AR sites
for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. For MLC &
FSM (and beyond 21z elsewhere) confidence remains too low to
mention precip, but will amend if needed. Another opportunity for
precip/ reduced cigs arrives early tomorrow morning through the
end of the forecast period, and have introduced PROB30 groups for
all sites. Sfc winds are mostly expected to remain under 10 kts
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  81  63  80 /  30  40  20  50
FSM   66  81  65  82 /  30  50  20  30
MLC   64  81  65  81 /  40  60  20  40
BVO   58  80  60  79 /  20  30  10  50
FYV   60  79  60  80 /  20  40  10  30
BYV   60  79  59  79 /  20  30  10  30
MKO   63  78  63  79 /  30  50  20  40
MIO   58  79  60  79 /  20  20  10  40
F10   63  78  63  79 /  40  50  20  50
HHW   65  77  65  78 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...43