427
FXUS64 KTSA 011915
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main concern overnight is the low potential for a couple of
opportunities of showers and thunderstorms - one this afternoon
and early evening and another after midnight. Patchy fog may also
develop again late tonight.

Isolated shower and thunderstorm potential remains this afternoon
and into early evening, primarily along and west of Highway 75,
with a nonzero chance of development farther east in parts of east
central and southeast Oklahoma - as depicted in CAMs. A north-
northwest to south-southeast oriented instability maximum is
analyzed from south central Kansas into far southeast Oklahoma, as
is forecast to persist into early evening. This zone should be
most favorable for isolated development through mid evening. A
limited threat for severe weather will exist given the instability
with storms that develop.

The secondary area for development is a weak boundary evident in
surface observations stretching roughly west to east just south of
I-40. With lower instability in this area at present and
persistent convection in North Texas, these two factors lead to a
lesser potential for development in this zone. It`s worth noting
that the HRRR has been persistent in development at least a couple
of storms in this area between 21 and 00Z, which either dissipate
or shift east thereafter. Will keep an eye on trends in the next
half hour or so and add a mention of storms farther east through
late afternoon if necessary.

After midnight, a thunderstorm complex expected to develop farther
to the west may make a run at parts of northeast Oklahoma after
midnight. Current CAM trends indicate that most of it will make a
southward dive and diminish in intensity before moving into
eastern Oklahoma. Will maintain low POPs in northeast Oklahoma
roughly west of Highway 75.

Most guidance develops fog well after midnight, especially in
parts of northwest Arkansas, extending some into northeast
Oklahoma. Indications are that it should be shorter lived, less
dense and less widespread than what occurred this morning so it
will be addressed with a patchy fog mention, with no advisory issued
with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The overall weather pattern will remain active well into next
week, with most days having at least some potential for showers
and thunderstorms.

On Sunday, a low chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread
south and east through the afternoon hours as an upper level
disturbance moves through the region. Sunday night and into Monday
morning, storms that are expected to develop during late
afternoon and evening well to the west of the area will move
eastward into eastern Oklahoma and eventually parts of western
Arkansas. A better chance for thunderstorms will accompany a
stronger disturbance Monday and into Monday night. Tuesday night
and into Wednesday, a front will sag into the area, providing yet
another focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Instability
during the early to mid week period will be supportive of severe
weather, and along with modest deep layer shear, a limited to
elevated threat will exist, especially during the afternoon and
evening time frames. A stronger push of dry air from the north
late in the week should bring a couple of dry days to the region.
That looks to come to an end once again next weekend, with
northwest flow aloft across the region and increasing potential
for overnight thunderstorm complexes moving eastward into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fog has dissipated but some low MVFR ceilings linger across
northeast OK. However, VFR conditions should prevail shortly
after 18z. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
but still expect coverage to remain too sparse for inclusion in
the forecast. Some potential again tonight for fog, most likely
across NW AR, but not expected to be as extensive. POssible
weakening storm cluster may make a run at NE OK very early Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  87  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
FSM   67  89  70  87 /   0  30  20  50
MLC   67  88  72  86 /  10  30  30  50
BVO   65  86  69  85 /  20  30  40  50
FYV   62  86  68  84 /   0  30  20  60
BYV   60  86  68  84 /   0  20  20  60
MKO   67  86  70  84 /  10  30  30  50
MIO   63  84  68  82 /  10  30  30  60
F10   67  86  72  84 /  10  30  40  50
HHW   67  86  71  84 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14