910
FXUS64 KTSA 311645
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A few areas of showers and storms continue this morning in
association with a mid level wave moving across E OK. Overall
coverage through 18z should remain low, but some increase in
coverage across far E OK and NW is likely after 18z with any
afternoon heating that the mid level wave interacts with as it
slowly moves east. That said, have adjusted PoPs some, mostly
lowering them across much of the area through 00z as most hi res
guidance suggests an overall lower coverage of showers/storms.
Ample cloud cover will keep temps down this afternoon, so the the
smaller diurnal rises reflected in max temps today look good.
Other than adjustments to PoPs, remaining first period elements
are in line and will be left as they are.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

After a relative lull on Saturday, PoPs/thunder chances increase
some on Sunday as a weak wave slides across. Higher rain/storm
chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday as a front
approaches from the north. Another relative lull in the action is
expected Tuesday before another potentially stronger shortwave
trough and associated cold front affect the Plains. The 12Z EC was
very amplified with this system and had a stronger cold front,
whereas the other global models were not near as aggressive.
Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the 12Z EC solution had a
lower prob chance of verifying, and climatology would also argue
against it as well. Nevertheless, a front will push into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher rain/storm
chances, and there`s definitely potential for an MCS to sweep
across the region during this time. If the stronger flow aloft
from the EC verifies, this MCS would have higher chances of being
severe. Mainly quiet weather is expected to close out the work
week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mid level trough moving across the area will likely result in
an increase in SHRA/TSRA activity, mainly across far NE OK and NW
AR later this afternoon and evening. Coverage likely to remain low
enough to only include a VCTS at the AR sites from 21z-01z with
this issuance. MVFR cigs likely to prevail through at least the
first 6-9 hours of the valid period, with a period of VFR
conditions thereafter. Fog potential will increase late tonight,
especially across the E OK sites where higher rainfall as
occurred most recently. Will include tempo groups from 09z-13z
with MVFR cigs, IFR vsbys at KRVS and KBVO, and MVFR vsbys
elsewhere. MVFR cigs are expected to lift by late morning with VFR
elements prevailing for the remainder of the period at all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  85  66  85 /  30  10  10  20
FSM   66  86  66  86 /  60  20  10  30
MLC   63  85  66  86 /  30  20  10  20
BVO   60  84  62  85 /  30  10  10  20
FYV   62  81  62  85 /  60  20  10  30
BYV   62  80  61  85 /  70  20   0  30
MKO   63  83  65  83 /  50  10  10  20
MIO   62  82  62  83 /  40  10  10  30
F10   62  84  65  84 /  30  10  10  20
HHW   65  84  67  82 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23