819
FXUS64 KTSA 020704
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A decaying MCS is ongoing over NW/N-Central OK this morning. The
MCS maintenance composite parameter per SPC mesoanalysis suggests
conditions over NE OK are not that favorable for MCS to continue
across NE OK thru the morning. CAMs agree as well, showing
dissipation. Nevertheless, KVNX radar shows outflow surging east
and this could maintain some showers and storms into parts of NE
OK. Some low PoPs were maintained thru the morning across NE OK,
but this is probably overkill. As we head into the afternoon, CAMs
suggest very little shower/storm coverage, with the better chances
across central/western OK so went with a low PoP west of hwy 75.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The MPAS and HRRR suggest there is much better potential tonight
into Monday morning for one or more MCSs to move into the area. An
MCV or convective-induced vort will likely be sliding over the
region Monday morning as well. By Monday afternoon, the better
rain/storm chances will be shifting east, with rain/storm chances
trending lower in the wake of the MCV. PoPs Monday night have been
lowered to chance across the north with a slight chance thunder
prob given low confidence and lack of a convective signal coming
in from the High Plains.

Focus then turns to a strong shortwave trough to slide across the
northern tier of states later in the week, on the nose of a
powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This system will force a
formidable frontal boundary south down the Plains which will
become the focus for what will likely become one or more MCSs to
track southeast across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
reinforcing front will slide thru Thursday, bringing at least low
thunder chances. The GFS and EC differ with the details beyond
Thursday, but indications are that there will be some potential
for more MCS activity late week on into next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible into early this morning, with
KFYV most likely to see any fog impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  85  71 /  20  50  60  30
FSM   90  71  88  72 /  10  40  50  30
MLC   89  71  85  72 /  10  50  50  20
BVO   88  70  85  68 /  20  40  60  30
FYV   88  68  85  68 /  10  30  60  30
BYV   87  68  84  68 /  10  20  50  40
MKO   87  69  84  71 /  10  40  60  30
MIO   87  69  82  68 /  20  20  60  30
F10   87  70  84  70 /  10  50  60  30
HHW   85  70  84  71 /  10  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05