255
FXUS64 KTSA 020135
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
835 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

All is quiet at the moment with mostly clear skies across the
area. However, a line of storms is moving into northwest OK, and
will track towards the area overnight. Most model guidance weakens
these storms on approach such that any impacts would be quite
minimal. But given good instability, modest shear, and the model
tendency to underestimate storms in this flow regime, there is at
least a marginal chance of a few stronger storms Sunday morning
in northeast OK. Most likely, the rest of the area will be dry.
Lows will bottom out in the 60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The overall weather pattern will remain active well into next
week, with most days having at least some potential for showers
and thunderstorms.

On Sunday, a low chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread
south and east through the afternoon hours as an upper level
disturbance moves through the region. Sunday night and into Monday
morning, storms that are expected to develop during late
afternoon and evening well to the west of the area will move
eastward into eastern Oklahoma and eventually parts of western
Arkansas. A better chance for thunderstorms will accompany a
stronger disturbance Monday and into Monday night. Tuesday night
and into Wednesday, a front will sag into the area, providing yet
another focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Instability
during the early to mid week period will be supportive of severe
weather, and along with modest deep layer shear, a limited to
elevated threat will exist, especially during the afternoon and
evening time frames. A stronger push of dry air from the north
late in the week should bring a couple of dry days to the region.
That looks to come to an end once again next weekend, with
northwest flow aloft across the region and increasing potential
for overnight thunderstorm complexes moving eastward into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Ensemble guidance suggests patchy fog redevelopment toward dawn
will be more limited to northwest AR and west of KMLC. Have
maintained a low probability of MVFR conditions with this issuance
across northwest AR with VFR conditions elsewhere. Decaying
convective complex likely to skirt northern OK sites with a
greater likelihood of VFR ceilings through the morning. Winds will
remain light east-southeast overnight then turn more southerly
Sunday afternoon with occasional gusts for northeast OK terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  87  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
FSM   67  89  70  87 /   0  30  20  50
MLC   67  88  72  86 /  10  30  30  50
BVO   65  86  69  85 /  20  30  40  50
FYV   62  86  68  84 /   0  30  20  60
BYV   60  86  68  84 /   0  20  20  60
MKO   67  86  70  84 /  10  30  30  50
MIO   63  84  68  82 /  10  30  30  60
F10   67  86  72  84 /  10  30  40  50
HHW   67  86  71  84 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24