042
FXUS64 KTSA 261640
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Last lingering portion of morning MCS is across extreme SE OK with
stable overturned airmass northward across the remainder of the
forecast area. Low chance of the remnant outflow boundary
sparking storms late this afternoon near the western periphery of
the forecast area should the boundary mix eastward. Otherwise dry
weather is largely expected for the remainder of the afternoon. A
welcome break from the heat has resulted from the early days rains
the amount of heat and/or humidity recovery is questionable.
Initial counties across far E OK / western AR have been removed
from the afternoon heat advisory and additional removal will be
dependent on afternoon trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Any ongoing precip will decay or move south of the area this evening
with quiet weather overnight. Northeast sfc winds fill in this
evening and overnight behind today`s storms, bringing drier and
slightly cooler air into the region for Thursday. This should hold
max heat indices in check... generally in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.
The break from the heat will be short-lived however as upper
ridging expands back over the area Friday/ Saturday with
additional heat headlines looking probable.

Another front tries to push into the region later Saturday into
Sunday with a chance of showers and storms returning mainly to NE OK
& NW AR. This may provide another short-lived break from the heat on
Sunday but dangerous heat is forecast to return next week as
positive height anomalies return yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Chances for TSRA will impact the NE OK and AR sites through 16z
as a complex of storms moves through the area. Will include tempo
groups with MVFR vsbys in thunder at those aforementioned sites
during that period. TSRA chances appear limited at KMLC so will
not include any mention with this issuance. Cigs are expected to
remain at VFR categories before scattering out this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  95  79 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   94  76  95  75 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  95  77 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   94  69  93  76 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   90  68  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   87  68  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   94  73  92  76 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   89  68  91  75 /  10   0  10  10
F10   98  72  92  76 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   96  74  92  74 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>056-
     059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23